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Slownenberg on 18 November 2023
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XtremeBG said:

Let's not forget that Switch 2 is very likely launching in 2024 and very likely having backwards compatibility. Nintendo historically hasn't launched much expensive hardware. So the chances are the Switch 2 won't be more than 300 or 350$ at most. Even if they do a Switch price cut it won't be bigger than 50$ which at that point will give little to no boost, since the difference between the two systems will be 100$ or 150$ maybe if we look at the lite model vs the base Switch 2 model.


So when we do the math Switch may very well end up of .. let's see, finish at around 15M this year so this is 5M from now to Dec 31st which is 135M in total after this year ends. With around 10M for the next year the number get's to 145M. Let's say 146M by end of 2024. With another 5M in 2025 we get to 151M, and no more than 3M after that, we get to DS's number 154M. Certainly has a chance of beating it, but even the lower number for the PS2 of 158.7M is looking far, let alone the higher ones (161/162M).

Yeah next gen Switch is certainly going to be backwards compatible and won't be priced more than $50 above the (at that point) 7.5 year old Switch. I do think they'll probably give the Switch and OLED $50 price cuts next year to keep sales decent until whenever next Fall the successor ends up launching (September I'm thinking). But even if the hybrid Switches are down to $250 and $300, and next gen launches somewhere between $350-$400 or perhaps has two SKUs at $350 and $400, few people would choose the old systems at only $100 less than the brand new system that plays all the games from the old system. There will still be buyers of the Switch, but there won't be many, and it'll be budget conscious buyers who don't already own a Switch after 7.5 years, so the Lite will probably be the most popular model at that point. I don't see the Switch selling more than 5 million once next gen launches, or at least not more than 5 million after holiday 2024, cuz maybe it still sells a couple million holiday quarter next year.

Furthermore, Nintendo is NOT going to want people to be buying the Switch once the new system is out. Because of backwards compatibility, so that it can still sell Switch games, they are going to want people picking up the new higher revenue system that also gives them access to the next ~7 years of games.

Switch might be at 145-146 million end of 2024, and by then I expect Nintendo will barely be producing any Switch consoles. They'll probably get a couple million excess consoles ready for the holidays that seasons and then bring production down under 50k/week, and then end production by end of 2025, maybe giving one last price cut to gradually sell the final 500k or so in 2026. Cutoff could come even sooner than that though. I think Switch will get to like 151 million when it's all over. From the day next gen launches Nintendo is going to be fully focused on getting people to buy that given bc and it not being that much more expensive than the Switch.