The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

XtremeBG said:

I expect Switch to fell down to 150k weekly for the first half of next year and possible to 130-120k weekly till the start of the holiday season next year. Which equates to what ? around 10M at most for the next calendar year (the holiday period will take decent hit as well). From there as I already said, if we put trajectory similar to the consoles released in the last 10-15 years (after their peak periods and especially the time around launching the successor and after that) then the Switch can very quickly drop down to a 2025 calendar year with sales around 50 to 100k weekly which will result in a year of around 4-5M and the next year after that 2026 should be it's last or second to last year with a sales of 1-2M and finally year of under 1M for 2027. And yes the drops should be bigger than 50% based on the couple of the last consoles after PS2. Let's not forget that Switch 2 is very likely launching in 2024 and very likely having backwards compatibility. Nintendo historically hasn't launched much expensive hardware. So the chances are the Switch 2 won't be more than 300 or 350$ at most. Which if they don't price cut the Switch then, the system may die very very quickly. And even with some pricecut (the most likely is 50$ as we haven't had 100$ pricecut on console since what ? 2009 with PS3 ?) the boost won't be big so late in it's life, with next gen system which will be backcompat.

So when we do the math Switch may very well end up of .. let's see, finish at around 15/16M this year so this is around 4/5M from now to dec 31st which is 135/136M in total after this year ends. With around 10M for the next year the number get's to 145/146M. Let's say the higher number cuz many of you give Switch more on the higher side than on the lower. So let's say 146M by end of 2024. With another 5M in 2025 (my higher prediction, although again I am saying around which it mean it can always go 1M under or above, we get to 151M, and no more than 3M for the years after we get to DS's number 154M. Certainly has a chance of beating it, But even the lower number for the PS2 of 158.7M is looking far, let alone the higher ones (161/162M).

My estimates may be high but I give realistic reasons as to why the sales estimates were high.
I agree that Nintendo wants to sell their new consoles at a reasonable price near $300. And since the Switch is $300 it needs to be given a price cut. Once the NG comes out Nintendo will be in a state and mentality of selling to make room for the new. Nintendo needs shelf space in stores. Yes there are rumors of the NG being backwards compatible, if that is true then that is all the more reason to be selling the Switch (the old slow hardware compared to NG) at a much lower and deeper cost. There are also rumors from the same person that spoke of BC, that the NG will be $400 with a $450 "upgrade".

In order for Nintendo to reach their 15M this FY they need to sell 7 million from Oct to March (6 million from now to March). Very easy. The Switch will and can sell 7.3 million this holiday season alone. (In March 2023 Switch reached 125 million, add 15 million and the goal is 140 million by March 2024). I agree that Nintendo will have a 10 million goal for the following FY, reach 150 million. And then they can cruise the next 10 over the next 2 years max. (I predict they reach 160 million by March 2026).