The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

XtremeBG said:

Keep in mind that lately since what ? maybe PS2 ? Consoles have died faster, and with bigger drops, so 50% per year may not be possible, but even bigger drops can hit. Also PS2 can be anywhere between 159 and 161/162M. Don't count only the lower numbers like 158.7M. Third of all, There is still a long way (about 30M to the higher PS2 number - 162M, which in this point in time in the system's life it's a lot.) for the Switch, the closer it get's the harder it becomes. Switch showed weeks of under 200k lately. This is not good. I mean yes it is normal and even fine for a console in it's 7th year, but once a console comes from a peak period of close to 400k weekly to e period where it is not even reaching 200k weekly, then you know then end is near and the end has begun. If you look most of the consoles, when they start to sell around half (or lower) of their peak periods, then the decline becomes way quicker and faster. (maybe the only exclusion here is PS2)

I agree consoles have been dying faster. But Playstation has been the exception rather than the rule. PS2 was selling for over 10+, and PS4 has continued to sell even into 2023 today.

Nintendo plans to support the Switch with 1st party and 3rd party software until the end of the fiscal year of March 2025. But they never specified when they would stop production of the Switch. My guess would be that Nintendo would do some part-time production once the Nintendo NG releases (in Nov 2024), and once 2025 they will slowly produce less and less (in my post earlier today, I mentioned what I think will happen. Switch will produce about 8 million switch in 2025, and March 2026 will be the official announcement of terminating production). 1.25 years after the launch of the next generation console is really fast.

Yes, Nintendo did show weeks under 200k, but so has the PS5 and Xbox Series, that is not good for a brand new console to be selling that low compared to a 7 year old console. Granted, PS5 has been selling much better since August.
I guess we will have to see and watch what Nintendo can do.