Currently Online 
| kilik said: How many units do we expect it to sell after Switch 2 launch? I think somewhere between 10 and 15 million units. |
10-15mil is certainly a stretch, seeing how PS4, Xbox One, and Wii U performed following the release of their respective successors. Unless Nintendo intends on support Switch well into the successors lifetime similar to what they did for the 3DS, I don't think this is possible. 3DS barely pulled this off even with an original, mainline Pokémon and Metroid title.
My LTD projection would be 141mil by end of the fiscal year (ending March 31, 2024). Switch will run through 2mil and >1mil in the first two quarters of F'24, it will experience its last big quarter with 4mil in the holiday season of 2024, and 2025 will essentially be the end (~4mil for F'25). Under this trajectory, the Switch should be neck-and-neck with the DS, though PS2 is a little bit unrealistic if Nintendo drops support. If they continue support or push the successor another year, then it will be an easy sweep for the Switch...at the expense of the success of its successor.
