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Yeah the VGAs tend to pick their winners and nominees mostly based on how much prestige they have, and how much they fit their view of games as a serious artistic medium for grownups.
Stuff like Hi fi Rush and Mario Wonder don't really fit with this notion, so they're probably going to be overlooked.
Hogwarts Legacy, while an excellent game, will probably be excluded as the folks behind the VGAs will want to avoid being targeted by the harrassment campaigns aimed at those who have streamed and promoted the game by extremist activists.