I believe based on what we have right now the nominees are likely to be:
Locked:
- Zelda TOTK
- Baldurs Gate 3
- Spider Man 2
Competitive:
- Resident Evil 4
- Hogwarts Legacy
- Diablo IV
- Final Fantasy XVI
Competitive but likely to get snubed :
- Starfield
- Sea of Stars
- Street Fighter 6
- Mario Wonder
- Hi Fi Rush
Starfield can miss the nominations would be honestly a disaster for Xbox. It's their biggest game this generation so far and not even be nominated as one of the best games of the year is a slap in the face of the industry
This is an extremely crowded year so games thst would usually be easy locks in the competition like Mario Wonder and Street Fighter VI will struggle to get nominations
The question here is what they will put more emphasis when choosing their nominations. Will they push diversity in genres? Will they put more importance in technological archievments? The scope of the game? Or in artistic elements?
It's definitely a special year. I don't remember any other year with so many GOTY contenders