Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

[UnderwaterFunktown]

Slownenberg said:

UnderwaterFunktown said:

Ehh, okay dude.

I mean, can you really argue otherwise? Spiderman is unlikely to do 20m on PS5, Wonder has a decent shot at doing 20m this quarter. Would you actually argue with either of those statements?

Remember people, we're talking about PS5 alone. There is no PS4 version and we're not talking about any future PC version. This is Wonder vs Spiderman 2, one system vs one system. A Mario game launching on a system that's gonna be 130m+ at release vs a Spiderman game launching on a system that's gonna be like 44m at release. Wonder has a good chance of doubling Spiderman 2's sales lifetime.

Yes I'd argue with the first statement for sure. You're forgetting that Nintendo games aren't the only ones that have legs, God of War 2018 legged it to more than 20m and Spider-Man should be well over 20m on PS4 and both those games only had 3m launches, and frankly Spider-Man 2 has the advantage of launching in a very barren period for sony first party games, this the title they've been promoting all year and will probably continue to promote for a decent while afterwards. They're also doing not 1 but 2 bundles with the game, both regular and red special edition. It will certainly fall 5-10m behind Wonder in this first quarter but after that the PS5 will still have 5 years of life left while the Switch will have ~1 and I don't see them throwing out Spider-Man 3 in a couple of years to cut of its legs, this will be the Spider-Man game for PS5 and one of the console's biggest exclusives in general. People will be picking it up for years like they did with the last one.

Unless it ends up with a mixed reception which I doubt, I'd say 20m is the floor for Spider-Man 2, not the ceiling.

As for the second statement, yea I do also doubt that Wonder will hit 20m in the first quarter alone, it might not be impossible if everything goes just right, but I would put it a few millions lower than that. And as for Wonder doubling Spider-Man lifetime, yea that's even more out there, this isn't the hay days of the DS, it's a very late Switch release, it ain't hitting 40m.