The_Liquid_Laser said:
The main problem with this reasoning is that first party releases have noticeably dropped the year before the successor released on EVERY PREVIOUS NINTENDO SYSTEM. You're basically saying, "I believe what I want to believe, and I don't care what the reliable evidence says." I'll start predicting a Switch 2 when I start seeing a drop in first party production. This year has a new Zelda and a new Mario, and we're about to get a 40-minute Nintendo Direct. All of this content is a sign that a successor is not coming soon. On top of that Nintendo just posted their best first quarter in the entire history of ever. It would be moronic business to replace the Switch right now. All signs point to a Switch 2 coming later rather than sooner. |
To keep Switch HW selling outside Japan though they need to start doing price cuts. And they have clearly realized they need to do something proactive to keep HW sales going given that they announced those bundles in Europe and NA. With price cuts, they could absolutely keep Switch going strong into 2025, assuming they still have games in the pipeline. Without price cuts though, Fall 2024 makes sense for successor as sales outside Japan should be quite weak by then.
I expect they'll still have AA games coming out each quarter next year, maybe even a major IP like Donkey Kong or something next year, but everything else is next gen, launching in just over a year.
