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Slownenberg on 30 August 2023
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RolStoppable said:

Super Mario Bros. Wonder will be the first REAL Mario game in over a decade, so it's going to win the race to 20m and lifetime sales too.

The first bunch of responses in this thread reminds me of 2009 when it was considered laughable by some and a big stretch by most that New Super Mario Bros. Wii could outsell Super Mario Galaxy. These people choked hard when Japan's first week sales of NSMB Wii had almost eclipsed SMG's LTD figure in Japan at the time. The final global sales were something along the lines of 30m for NSMB Wii and 12m for SMG; it was a landslide victory for one game, just not the one that most people had assumed.

The next stage in the rollout of the SMB movie is Blu-ray and streaming. When all other Mario games on Switch could already ride high on this movie's success, then you can be certain that the REAL deal will do that to an even bigger degree. SMB Wonder is Nintendo's big holiday title in 2023, and not only that, it's the only big game they have in the holiday quarter. They are giving it a favorable release date too (October 20th), so launch, Black Friday and Christmas will stack.

You guys who doubt should consider that NSMB Wii reached 10.55m in its first 1.5 months. SMB Wonder will have three weeks more for its first fiscal period on top of releasing on Switch, meaning it's selling to a bigger video game market than 14 years ago on top of being on a console that has been blowing away many previous software sales records. If you take all of this in mind, it would be surprising, if not shocking already, if SMB Wonder's shipment figure for the holiday quarter did not start with a "2".

I'm confused by what you consider to be a "real" Mario game haha, cuz ya know Odyssey came out 7 years ago. 7 years is not over a decade. If you're talking about classic 2D Mario then sure.

Also I don't see what this has to do with NSMBWii and Galaxy. Galaxy sold 12 million, TotK passed that in probably less than two weeks. So not exactly a good comparison. TotK is wayyyyyyyy bigger than Galaxy was. And we don't know much of anything about Wonder yet so there's no way to know if it'll be as big as NSMBWii was.

Yes Wonder is going to be huge. But its a stretch to say its gonna be open-world-Zelda huge. We just don't know enough right now. If Wonder turns out to be an absurdly good critically acclaimed game that becomes THE game to get that everyone is talking about then it has a chance at beating TotK. If it's just a good Mario game then it'll hit 20m and probably 25m but unlikely to put up TotK numbers. One thing I'll say is it probably won't have epically long legs. If it has any chance at beating TotK lifetime it's gonna have to not only pass TotK in sales but pass it probably by a few million by the time Wonder hits 1 year old because once next gen starts people are still gonna be picking up TotK to play for years but probably much fewer people are gonna be picking up last gen 2D Mario, especially when a new 3D Mario is pretty much guaranteed to launch on day 1 next gen and will likely have a lot more hype than Wonder.