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NSMBWii was a huge seller, it reached like 80% of MKWii's sales, 2.5 times 3D Mario or Smash, and some 4 times Zelda's (!)

NSMBU didn't met the same success, however. The Deluxe version on the Switch is a fraction of the sales of MK8, Smash, Zelda, or even Odyssey. It's struggling to outsell, launch-aligned, the port of 3D World to the Switch, though it seems to have better legs.

So, hard to gauge from a sample of two how well a new 2D Mario will fare these days. I suppose it could do as well as TOTK, though. That seems reasonable enough in the wake of the Mario movie.