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Slownenberg on 30 August 2023
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No way Mario's launch is as big as TotK. Mario ain't hitting 10 mil in a weekend, maybe 7-8 mil.

Mario might beat Zelda to 20m because it's got the holiday season. Zelda hit 18.5 million in like 49 days, which is about a week into December for Mario. At that point I think Zelda will definitely be ahead of Wonder. But with a few more weeks of Christmas sales after that I could see Wonder possibly catching Zelda and hitting 20m by end of the year which would be like 72 days and I very much doubt Zelda sold another 1.5 million in the first ~22 days of July, I would guess its sales had slowed down well beyond that by then. so if Wonder hits 20m by end of the year then yeah it probably beat Zelda to 20m. If it's only like 18-19m though then Zelda won that race.

No way Mario sells more lifetime. Zelda has a good chance of going over 30m. Wonder will easily do 20m, should do 25m, 30m is a stretch I think. I could see it ending up close to 30m right alongside Odyssey. I think TotK is going to be selling for several years even after Switch is replaced. While I see Mario Wonder sales drying up in 2025 once we are on to the next gen.

TotK is going to be THE Zelda to buy for the next like 6 years. It'll keep selling next gen as people pick it up to play on Switch or on backwards-compatible Switch 2. Mario Wonder I think will mostly go by the wayside on launch day for Switch 2 when we get the next 3D Mario. 2D and 3D Mario are of course different things, but all the Mario hype by then is going to be about the new 3D Mario. TotK will still have all the Zelda hype for many years to come and will keep selling. I could see Mario at 20m by end of the year, and Zelda at like 25m. If Switch 2 launches Fall 2024 maybe they are at like 28-29m Zelda and 26m Mario by end of 2024. After that Wonder probably picks up another 2+ to finish at 28/29m million but TotK keeps selling as the Zelda game to buy for most of next gen so it maybe goes to 35m. And note I'm not saying it gets remastered for next gen, I'm just saying people are going to keep picking up TotK for years to come next gen as its going to be a looooong time until the next new Zelda (unless Nintendo makes a new 2D Zelda next gen) and so both Switch and Switch 2 owners are going to be continuing to buy it for years because the game is just THAT big!