By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Soundwave on 27 August 2023
Edit Thread
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

Nintendo's audience isn't primarily children anymore.

Let me say that again, their primary audience by actual demographic split is not children.

Now sure Nintendo will always make kids a priority ... but the "dirt cheap hardware!" was always byproduct of Nintendo's demographics being much different in the past.

This is the demographic split for the Switch in the US for example early in its product cycle (through October 2017):

83% is 16 or older (so basically not a child).

This spread is likely actually only going to get *even older* for Nintendo. The person who was say 11 years old and got a Switch in 2017 for example will be 18 years old (an adult) when the Switch 2 launches presumably in 2024. 

So you are going to have another wave of "Nintendo kids" who are graduating up into late teenage-dom and adulthood with the Switch 2, I've said this before but when this happens over and over again generation after generation, the block of "kids" gets outnumbered by adults because you have multi-generations of adults (people who are from the NES generation, SNES generation, N64 generation, GCN/GBA generation, Wii/DS, Wii U/3DS, and now even Switch who have become adults but still enjoy Nintendo products). 

Even for things like the Super Mario Movie, the demographic split for the opening weekend was 84% of the audience was over the age of 12 (so teenagers or adults). 

As such Nintendo can charge $399.99 relatively easily, they probably could get away with $449.99 even really. The bigger factor is going to be having a strong first 8-10 months of software (Mario Kart and new 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4 cross-gen that sort of thing) and having good marketing. The hardware has to be appealling though ... so decent specs + something that doesn't look like a toy is probably a must. It should be a full generational leap beyond the current Switch, the other thing I think they'd be well advised for is to not bring down the screen size. The 3DS going back to a smaller screen after the DSi XL I think kind of hurt the system (though they were boxed in with the 3D screen probably being expensive). The rumors out there are the Switch 2 has an 8 inch display (these are rumors though) ... that would be an increase over the Switch OLED even, so that would be good. 

I don’t necessarily disagree with your overall point but I really think the data you’re using is flawed.

You said the Switch demographics split in that chart is through October 2017, so basically the first 8 months or roughly the ~10% . Are we sure the demographics of early adopters is the same as people buying a console in the following years? Same with the Mario movie, are the age groups that go to movies opening weekend the same that go in following weeks?

I referenced the early sales cycle for the Switch as it's probably the most relevant to the Switch 2 price ... it shows the early cycle buyers skew a lot older. 

But even much later in the Switch's product cycle, you can see that the 16 or over portion of the Switch userbase is still much, much larger than the 15 and under crowd, it looks like a split of at least 75% for 16 and over (this is from I believe 2021):

It's simply not 1990 or 2006 even any more. Nintendo's age demographics are vastly different today with a vastly older audience (which will get even progressively older next gen I believe), even for the kids portion nowadays many of the today's kids are growing up with parents that owned the NES or SNES or N64, so they are fans themselves. When I was growing up my parents didn't grow up with Mario or any Nintendo system, and thus getting them to upgrade from like NES to SNES was like pulling teeth. Explaining why we needed to upgrade was a chore. Today's households ... the parents may want a new system more than the children, lol because they are and continue to be fans themselves. 

It's just a totally different reality. 

Next product cycle in fact it might not be so crazy that the 40+ crowd becomes larger for Nintendo as the under 5-15 crowd (children). You can look at the chart above and see it trending that way already. 

That's why I think $399.99 is likely, and even $449.99 is not off the table. The main reason IMO that Nintendo may be gun shy about $449.99 is because of the legacy of the Wii U and 3DS, but there are factors there that are much more different. The DS/3DS and Wii/Wii U lines were much more dependant on fad like trends as their cornerstone selling points (touch and motion control which became widely adopted by everyone else and by extension then became nothing special themselves) and weak launch window lineups for both systems as well somewhat goofy/dated designs. The Switch brand is not dependant on these factors, of the top 15 Switch software sellers only 1 (Ring Fit, which got a big boost thanks to COVID lockdowns shutting down gyms globally) is an "expanded audience" title, which just got bumped out of the top 10 itself thanks to Tears of the Kingdom, and Tears of the Kingdom is about as hardcore of a title Nintendo makes. 

The Switch 2 doesn't really have any pressure to appeal again to that crowd in the way the 3DS/Wii U were obligated to find lightning in a bottle the second time (generally impossible to do). If Ring Fit 2 is a flop for Switch 2 for example it's more of a "well who cares" or "oh well", not a "holy shit the platform is doomed" kind of thing. Switch's largest audience (by far) are adults, and not casual adults either, it's adults who clearly know how to play video games already who are fans of Nintendo's core IP, therefor it should be much easier to repeat the Switch's success (though not a given, you still have to execute on several key points). If you remove Ring Fit from the Switch, it's not like the system would plummet in install base, if you remove Wii Sports or Wii Fit from Wii, it's a massive loss. So we'll see, it's entirely possible Nintendo feels like they have moved on from the ghosts of the Wii/Wii U and DS/3DS transitions and that Switch is very much a different product isn't subject to the same up and down trends the last transition was, so they may feel like $449.99 is a reasonable price. My guess is they may hedge on something like $399.99 for a 64-128GB storage model that is produced in lower quantities and a $449.99 model at 256GB storage that is at least at first more widely available. If there is backlash to the $449.99 model, then can quickly pivot and produce more of the $399.99 one. Or the trauma from the Wii U and 3DS launches still lingers and Nintendo opts not to stay safer with $399.99 only, but I'm starting to think the the more they see the Switch OLED selling at $350, the more emboldened they may get with Switch 2. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 27 August 2023