a) Probably.
b) Hogwarts Legacy. To judge by its sales, more people will be upset if they snub it than if they don't, I mean. *sighs* Okay, I'm gonna weigh in to say that Hogwarts Legacy's average review score strikes me as inflated by brand familiarity. It's another generic open world adventure game about nothing that I bought just to spite so many rich and powerful people telling me I couldn't (which I suspect lots of other people did as well), and I regret it; the dullest, most deliberately inoffensive game ever to generate so much controversy. I wish it could be snubbed for that reason alone. It's not like it'll actually win though anyway, so whatever.
c) Nothing. All my favorite games this year so far have met with better scores.
d) My favorite game this year, Misericorde: Volume One. Based on 110 user reviews on Steam, it's currently sitting at 90% and enjoys a perfect score based on 35 user reviews on the smaller rival itch.io platform. I say it'll be snubbed because you've never heard of it before. In fact, to judge by the fact that Polygon is the only gaming site to professionally review it so far (and they don't score games)...here's their highly positive review if you're interested...it looks like even most professional critics haven't notice Misericorde's existence either, besides which I suspect it would prove an unpopular nominee even if by some miracle it were picked because it's a visual novel in the strictest sense of the term that's pretty much non-interactive (although it still definitely benefits from existing in a video game format; it wouldn't be quite as compelling in any other medium). This sort of thing happens fairly often to my favorite games. 
Narratively, it's a murder mystery revolving around medieval nuns and one of the best-written games ever made. Only the first chapter of the game is available so far, but it's still my favorite game of the year and will likely remain such. Anyway, yeah, it definitely won't make any Game of the Year listings that I can think of though IMO it deserves to.
