Machina on 13 August 2023
I've never watched it or kept track of the nominees, but looking at 2023 games in the mid-80s on OpenCritic with high profiles, I can definitely see Hogwarts Legacy getting a nomination.
As for 90s games that get overlooked (at least in the main category), I imagine any AA or indie game that doesn't get a huge word-of-mouth effect going will be ignored. Right now that'd be Jack Jeanne, although it has so few reviews that it'd only take one in the 80s to pull it below 90 anyway.
