Will the Switch 2 have some secret sauce? If so, what?

[RolStoppable]

JWeinCom said:

Pretty sure that even after the release of the 2DS, the 3DS models continued to sell better. The feature seems to be worth the extra cost to most people at least. Probably not worth the cost in terms of performance, but offputting is a bit much. Not really sure what you're trying to argue with software, because if the shift of shovelware to mobile was a factor, then that seems to cut against the argument you're making if I'm not misunderstanding. If that was a big part of the Switch's decline, more horsepower wouldn't have really helped. So, absent that, what would the 3DS have sold? 100 m? What would a beefier DS have sold? 

The Vita was what people are suggesting the Switch 2 should be. Essentially the same, with better graphics, and QOL improvements. It may not have had the improvements you think it ought to have had, but it did everything the PSP did, and then some. People weren't interested. Those kinds of sequel consoles are just not guaranteed to have the same appeal as predecessors. 

I did not say the Switch 2 would be the same thing as going from the GBC to GBA. The GBA was a legitimately massive leap over the GBC that allowed you to do types of games that just couldn't have been done before. The Switch 2 will not do that. It was also for the most part a wholly unique library that couldn't be found anywhere else. Outside of the first party stuff, the Switch 2 presumably won't have a ton of exclusives. The GBA came out at the height of Pokemon where handheld gaming was taking off. I'm not saying the Switch 2 won't simply continue the trend of Switch sales, but the scenario is different, so there is no guarantee of that. 

Yeah, the hybrid feature is appealing. But, people already have a system that does exactly the same thing, the Switch. If you're expecting them to drop another several hundred dollars, then the new system should do something worthwhile that the old one doesn't. If we have the same kind of cross gen period as XBoxSx/PS5, the value proposition on the Switch becomes very unclear. Is the Switch audience going to be sold on shinier graphics when that really hasn't been a major selling point in the first place? They can just only put games on the Switch 2, and some people are going to buy it because they just have to have the next Smash Bros. But I think a lot of people are going to think why am I going to 400ish dollars for a system that plays pretty much the same kinds of games at the same level of quality? What's the pitch? "It's like the Switch, but a little better." "Well, if you want to play the next animal crossing, you kind of have no choice".

The 3DS models did sell better than the 2DS, but that's because the 2DS didn't feature the convenient clamshell design and the 3DS got its New upgrade not too long after the 2DS was launched. When Nintendo launched the 2DS XL late in the 3DS's life, this 2DS SKU was the most popular SKU among all four still existing models until the end of the 3DS's life.

The argument regarding software is that there's a wide range of customers, so even if we all here know that licensed games are often crappy, they can still be the most desired games for somebody else who doesn't play many video games. For example, not all kids' first game is a Mario one as it might just be a tie-in of their most favorite TV show or movie. This is the specific example for licensed games, but the general point was also that the 3DS got a lot less retail releases overall than the DS did. You said that the 3DS's library was arguably better than the DS's, but it actually wasn't.

Regarding the Vita, you are really just guessing without knowing much about it; this became really apparent in your follow-up responses to zorg1000. The PSP's purpose as a gaming device was to offer games comparable to PS2 quality in portable form which it could mostly deliver on by having the majority of big console IPs on it. The Vita should have been that kind of companion to the PS3, but aside from lacking four buttons that could only be poorly substituted with a touchpad on the back of a console, it lacked the majority of the games themselves. Call of Duty was not a known entity at the launch of the Vita, it was announced in June 2012 with nothing more than a logo, set to release in late 2012. In Japan, Monster Hunter was confirmed not to come to the Vita in September 2011 already, three months before the console launched over there. Leading up to the Vita's launch, there was already a trend of uncertainty established and subsequent announcements or the lack thereof kept hurting the system so much that Sony gave up on it in less than two years; their confirmation in June 2013 (only 16 months after the launch of the Vita in America and Europe) that all their American and European development teams are focused on PS4 software put the nails in the coffin.

As for Pokémon and handheld gaming taking off, I think you are mistaking this correlation with the European market seeing a major boost due to an open market across all its rich nations, because the console market as a whole benefited from this development. Much of the growth during this time period really came from Europe, because costs for consumers dropped for all kinds of things in the latter half of the 1990s, including electronics.

I doubt that Nintendo will pursue a cross-gen strategy outside of Metroid Prime 4 which they'll honor to release on Switch, just like Breath of the Wild wasn't made exclusive to Switch because it got originally announced for the Wii U. I don't think better graphics will be a major boon for most Switch gamers, rather better graphics are the icing on the cake. The real progress that most Nintendo gamers will be looking for are new features in the IPs they love, or at least such a level of refinement of existing features that it's hard to say no. If we take Animal Crossing (which I don't play and am not familiar with it), interesting new features would be things like being able to marry (either NPCs or other players online which would then duplicate the existing town for both players) or the option to open and run your own kind of shop in the town. But if the next Animal Crossing did not attempt to expand on its concept, then sure, it would become a harder sell, not just for the game itself, but also the console.

The nature of the console business is cyclical. Eventually a new console is required to keep the business going. Better graphics are just something that comes natural due to the evolution of computer chips. Strictly speaking, Nintendo could still go the GBC route with Switch, so the better hardware that is rumored for 2024 doesn't necessarily have to be a Switch successor, but just a better Switch SKU. But it's more likely that Nintendo opts for next gen, because next gen creates a lot more interest than a mid-gen upgrade. Either way, it will have been over seven years since Switch launched by then, so putting down the money for new hardware won't be an annoyance for the market. We've had enough console cycles for people to get used to how it works and Switch is a platform that has received so many good and great games that it's hard to find someone who isn't satisfied with it.