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JWeinCom said:

So, I'll likely be checking out of this topic for a while at least. Nothing personal to anyone, just think I've spent enough time, and feel like I'm starting to repeat myself. Just putting that out there, so anyone I'm engaging with can decide whether they want to put the effort into a response I may or may not read.

Norion said:

The vast, vast majority of that over 1.5 billion aren't in NA, Europe or Japan though. It's not the max a console can ever do of course but the portion of console sales those territories take up hasn't changed much in a long time so it's unlikely it's suddenly gonna shift significantly in a short period. For attitudes changing that could potentially help but attitudes won't have changed that much since the launch of the Switch. It's more Nintendo consoles following the Switch's successor that might notably benefit from a shift in these things so the Switch 2's growth potential is primarily gonna be from Europe and you're only looking at another 10-15m at most that could be gained from there.

US Population has grown by 50 million. EU has 20 million more. Canada has 8 million more. Japan is about a million less. Mexico is about 25 million more. Australia has about 6 million more. And PS2 sold more in the "rest of the world" than it did in Japan. And, the "rest of the world" numbers are likely misleading, because in certain countries (China or Brazil for instance) many consoles are imported due to absurd prices in the home countries. I know I personally sold a lot of systems that were headed oversees when I worked at Best Buy. There's definitely a significant number of new customers compared to PS2. 

Switch's growth doesn't depend solely or even mostly on overall attitude changes or population changes. Those just show why the PS2 sales shouldn't be treated as a cap. If Switch 2 sales were to grow, the likely causes would be either Nintendo making really great new software, something more appealing about the hardware itself, or likely some combination of the two. 

zorg1000 said:

Ok, it had Uncharted at launch followed up by mediocre/bad installments of AC/COD 8-9 months later. And yes the multimedia functions of PSP were a big deal, I don’t know if UMD movies were a hit but I recall PSP being quite easy to add pirated movies/music  onto. A device that could do all those things in 2005-2008 was state of the art.

But that’s a really dumb argument because it can equally be applied to devices that weren’t straight forward successors, “we have never seen two consecutive generations of new concepts succeed!” And why does it have to do better than the successor? Is SNES a failure because it did worse than NES? Is GBA a failure because it did worse than GB? Are PS4/PS5 failures because they will fail to surpass PS2?

Yes, I think people who spent $300-350 for a Switch to play Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Pokemon, Zelda, etc. will pay $300-400 to play the next installments of those games. This isn’t a Wii or DS scenario where a large part of the audiences were buying them to play non-traditional games like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Nintendogs, Brain Age, etc. I know those type of games have had success on Switch but they are not the primary sales drivers.

PSP being able to play movies and MP3s was not state of the art. PDAs had been doing that for a while. This is a conversation about adding videos to Sony's Clie line predating the PSP. https://www.head-fi.org/threads/watching-movies-on-a-sony-clie-handheld.89686/ I clearly remember watching family guy episodes on a palm pilot (I think Tungsten?) in high school way before the PSP came out and I wasn't a tech wiz of any sort. A lot of PDAs could do that. Windows had portable video players in 2004. https://www.easytechjunkie.com/what-is-a-portable-media-center.htm

A lot of companies were working on this. Within a few months of the PSP release, you had the Ipod line doing that, with it being pretty easy to import videos that you downloaded from whatever sketchy p2p program you preferred. Those features weren't anything mindblowing in 2005, and I'm skeptical they were a huge selling point in the iPod heyday. They definitely weren't state of the art in 2008 considering the iPhone launched in 2007. Considering the dominance of the iPod in that market at the time, I really don't think that was a major part of PSP's success. 

I'm not sure exactly what argument you're referring to. What you seem to be referring to is that I mentioned that Nintendo has at no point had a successor console sell more than its predecessor with solely upgraded power and QOL improvements. That is not an argument, it is a statement of fact. That does not mean necessarily that a more powerful console could not sell as well or more, but that we have no reason to expect it would. Considering the particulars of this situation, as mentioned in the previous post, I don't see why we would expect a different result, assuming Nintendo's software is of generally the same quality.

That same can't be applied to "new concepts", because the very definition entails that it's something new. While it is possible to get a general understanding of how an audience will respond to something like improved graphics, it would not be possible to guess how the would respond to a generic "new concept" because by definition we don't know what it is. So, that argument would actually be pretty stupid.

You think that no significant amount of people are potentially going to get bored with Mario Kart or Animal Crossing? That would be absolutely astounding if true. People get bored with shit. You never stop following a gaming series? Stop reading a series of books? Stop watching a TV series? Give up on a hobby? Out of 130 millionish customers no significant number of them will be on the fence about buying a new system? They're all in the bag? Come on now, that's absurd. It's Animal Crossing, not heroin. Out of 130 million or so Switch owners, there are definitely a significant number who may or may not buy the Switch 2 depending on what it is and what it does. And I think for a lot of those people, better visuals aren't going to be all that attractive.

Does that mean it would be a failure? Dunno why you're asking me that really. I am pretty sure I never used the word failure. I'm being precise in my wording, yet things are coming back to me warped. I don't know if selling less than the Switch would make it a failure, but selling more would certainly be more of a success. I don't think resigning yourself to a diminishing market is ever really a great idea. I am operating on the assumption Nintendo is going to try and sell more hardware. 

RedKingXIII said:

The Vita was nowhere near as powerful as the PS3, and the Wii U is slightly more powerful than the PS3 in some aspects. BOTW definitely wouldn't work on the Vita.

Yeah, I know the Vita was weaker than the PS3, but it had ports of PS3 games that were able to capture the core experience. I don't think you could do a quick and easy port to the Vita, but I don't know that you couldn't get it to run on the Vita with some compromises by keeping it mostly in tact. But, I'm not a developer, which is why I'm not sure.

Chrkeller said:

Yeah I was going to say the exact same thing.  Vita was powerful for sure, but not that powerful. 

They got SF Alpha 3 running on the GBA, and Doom on the SNES, both offering a pretty comparable experience to the originals. 

Sure, much like witcher 3 on the switch.  Games can be ported.  

Nintendo combined home and their portable divisions.  Meaning Nintendo software isn't split across multiple consoles, it will all be on a single platform.  Which is why I think a switch 2 makes perfect sense.  Make the games and they will come.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Nintendo needs a gimmick.

A hybrid system is perfect.  Nintendo portable consoles have always sold well....  and their home consoles are hit & miss.  Combining both ensures good sales.