Will the Switch 2 have some secret sauce? If so, what?

[RolStoppable]

JWeinCom said:

I don't know why exactly you'd disagree with that. We saw about half their handheld business drop out from DS to 3DS. Granted the 3D feature wasn't enticing, but ultimately, it was a product priced similarly to the DS (eventually), with a generational leap in graphics, and a pretty similar, and I'd argue superior, software lineup. I don't think you could blame the drop solely on the 3D feature, I think a large part of it was that people just got bored and needed something to motivate them.

We can also look at the Vita. Hardware wise, the Vita was a more powerful PSP, and really impressive for its time. It was basically what people were suggesting, a more powerful version of the previous hardware. And it completely failed, despite Nintendo losing so much market share.

You could of course point to other factors as one always could, but at the end of the day we had the handheld market contract by about half. Because not ever person who plays games necessarily does so as a part of their lifestyle, and not everyone who does so necessarily needs to play them on the go. 

As for the GBA, as I mentioned, the hardware leap here is far greater than what will be possible with a Switch 2. Maybe not in terms of number crunching, but in terms of how it appears to the human eye. It was essentially a ten year jump from a system that was far from cutting edge. If the Switch 2 was going to have that kind of leap, I might feel differently. Also, the GBA didn't sell exceptionally quickly compared to the Gameboy. If you compare it to the Gameboy's early years, then yes, but if you compare it to the last few years of the Gameboy, things are differently. The GBA basically just continued the trend of the Game Boy line. This was mainly due to the influence of Pokemon combining with the GBA hardware; there was now a large market for handheld titles and hardware that could run more ambitious games. The Switch 2 wouldn't have the same benefits.

When we look at when Nintendo has increased its marketshare, it is with the DS, the Wii, and the Switch, systems which had some unique feature. Except for arguably the GBA mentioned above, they've never increased marketshare by simply adding power and QOL. As you and a few others keep pointing out that focusing the Switch 2 on a feature nobody wants would potentially tank the system, as with the Wii U and 3DS. And sure that's true, but I'm not suggesting that Nintendo should make a bad feature. If they make a good one, they can potentially keep the same level of success as the Switch, which people here don't seem to think will happen with just a straight upgrade, or maybe even surpass it.

As for the girlfriend argument, I just don't know about that. I'm sure that's part of the appeal, but according to research, most of the Switch fanbase is female. https://www.gamesindustry.biz/eedar-nintendo-switch-attracting-more-women-wider-age-ranges-over-time  I didn't really look into the methodology, so grain of salt. I'm sure some there are some men owning a Switch for that reason, but I'm skeptical that's the main cause of the Switch's success.

3D was very detrimental to the 3DS, it pushed people away from buying one. At first Nintendo did eat the cost, but eventually they also released the system without 3D. That speaks volumes about how offputting 3D was. Plus 3D also cut the battery life in half, so even people who didn't want to use it at all were still negatively affected. The 3DS's retail software library certainly couldn't compete with the DS's. There's a wide range of software you aren't interested in, but for a lot of others it did matter. Such as games based on licenses, no matter how crappy they are, but the video game industry moved them to smartphones based on their belief that mobile was the logical successor to the dedicated gaming handheld - it turned out it wasn't, but additional damage was done. There are more examples for how the library suffered, but in general a strong decrease in the overall number of released software goes hand in hand with a decrease in breadth and depth of a library.

The Vita failed to have proper R2/L2/R3/L3 buttons, so it wasn't a complete basic upgrade over the PSP - come to think of it, Nintendo also released the monstrosity Circle Pad Pro for the 3DS, because they hadn't thought through things either. Aside from this hardware blunder, the Vita was also negatively affected by the video game industry's assumption that mobile is the future. As such the Vita's game library paled very much in comparison to the PSP, especially as far as American and European software is concerned. The PSP also had the benefit of releasing before smartphones, so it could sell based on its multimedia features too; the Vita got none of that anymore.

I don't expect the hardware leap to sell Switch 2, it will still be its games. Gameplay-wise, we've basically hit the end of the road with the Wii U by making open world games comfortably doable. Doesn't matter though, because "comfort gaming" is a big thing. Comfort gaming is defined as something that you know, something that assuredly is fun for you. Just like there are certain games that people always tend to go back to over time, there are certain game types that will be always welcome. So if Nintendo makes sure that odd hardware choices aren't getting in the way, they'll keep that audience.

If Switch 2 is to Switch in sales what the GBA was to the GBC years, then I don't know what the problem is. There's now a large market for console gaming that seamlessly transitions from the TV to portable. People know it, people like it. Third parties know it too, so I doubt that Switch 2 will have to go through the same extent of hesitation as the first Switch.

Other people here aren't the measuring stick for what makes Switch 2 successful or the level of the success it will have. The track record of the general consensus on an internet gaming forum regarding Nintendo hardware sales predictions is very, very bad. Nintendo's current situation with their handheld monopoly isn't one that has held true often in the past - the GBA is the sole exception - nor is the current status quo of being the only one to have a hybrid console a common one. The important main point here is that Switch 2 will have a unique feature by default as the only hybrid console on the market. Or in other words, you don't need secret sauce for continued success when your well-known sauce is already something that the market can't get enough of.

The girlfriend argument is just one angle to explain why switching play modes is such a good thing. It's not all there is to Switch's success. Of course it's also true that Switch appeals to females.