The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Soundwave said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

At this point, I think 160m is in the bag. Nintendo just posted the best first quarter to a FY that they've ever had. They are not eager to replace the Switch.

Something that people forget is that Nintendo is extremely conservative on their business side. They are not going to kill off their most profitable console ever to gamble on the next one. Remember that even when they released the DS, they called it a "third leg", with GBA and their home console being the other 2 legs. They were only going to kill off the GBA when they knew the DS was successful. Nintendo likes a sure thing. They definitely are not eager to kill the Switch off. They aren't eager to release a Switch 2, and even when they do, they are going to milk every last drop of profit off of the Switch. People should go all the way to March 31, 2027 when they do their hardware sales projections, because Switch is going to ship at least 1m annually even that far off.

Dev kits for the Switch 2 are out in Europe too, which means a new system is coming, there's no real point in even having a big debate about that, they are moving on to a new system. 

Nintendo is not "killing" anything from their POV, they will want people who would have bought a Switch to just move over and buy a Switch 2 which if its backwards compatible (it will be) IS a Switch 1 also. For them there is no delineation that way, this stuff only matters to tiny number of people arguing about it on message boards (read: it doesn't really matter). 

Sony could sell more PS4s if they wanted to, they chose not to on purpose because they're effectively forcing people to buy a PS5 instead, which is a bigger win for them because that locks that consumer into their new software ecosystem for a further 5-7 years and means they can sell all their newer and future games to that person, not just a legacy library.

A) A new system is definitely coming.  That doesn't mean it is coming next year.

B) Nintendo is not Sony.  I see a lot of people on forums making the mistake of thinking that Nintendo is just going to follow what Sony has done.  Except Nintendo is known for doing their own thing and not following Sony.  This particularly makes sense now, because Nintendo is the market leader and not Sony.

Nintendo supported the 3DS for a couple of years after the Switch released.  Expect them to do the same thing with the Switch, since this is how Nintendo behaves when they only have 2 systems to support during a console transition period.