| RolStoppable said: I don't think Nintendo will let dry up Switch software in 2024, so shipments of 2m+ are doable in every quarter. This means the holiday quarter needs to be somewhere between 4-5m. It's not crazy high. I don't agree with the prevalent assumptions that Nintendo won't offer better SKU options eventually or that Nintendo will kill off Switch sales in an attempt to get its successor off to a better start. The smooth transition period from the 3DS to Switch is something that Nintendo will want to replicate, because we can expect a significant price difference between Switch Lite and the Switch's successor, plus I fully expect Nintendo's software pricing to get raised by 10 bucks across the board. It's going to be a pretty normal gen to gen difference in pricing, so it makes sense to keep Switch going even after its successor has launched, and allow it to run its course like the 3DS was allowed to. |
I think 2 mil. on average in the 3 non-holidays quarter in FY2025 is sportive. If we take FY2023 as a baseline an assume that sales in FY2025 are roughly down 50% compared to FY2023 we have the following result:
FY2023:
Q1: 3.43
Q2: 3.25
Q3: 8.23
Q4: 3.06
FY: 17.97
FY2025:
Q1: 1.72
Q2: 1.63
Q3: 4.12
Q4: 1.53
FY: 9.00
The difference is that you reach the 9 mil. (for LTD of ~ 150 mil.) by end of calendar year 2024 whereas I by end of FY2025. Will see who's closer (I hope you).
Last edited by Fight-the-Streets - on 04 August 2023
