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I think Mario Kart 9 is a sure thing. My guess is they’ve been spending all these years working on something huge with that to be their next gen launch killer app. It’s really their best bet to try to get as much of the massive Switch base to upgrade initially.

I also think Prime 4 is going to get BotW’d and be cross gen launch, with emphasis put on the next gen version’s graphics. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s it for the heavy hitters and something like new 3D Mario is within the first year, but not launch. Pipe dream is an Ocarina remake for launch, since I think that could be huge and help the inevitable long gap to new Zelda.