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Machiavellian on 18 July 2023
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EpicRandy said:
Machiavellian said:

You know there is a strong chance that ABK could just walk away with cash and sell to another big player who has enough capital like Apple or Google.  Those 2 companies would have absolutly no issue getting the deal done and ABK still gets paid like king.  I am saying if I was ABK, I walk away with my 3 billion dollar pay day and behind the scenes look to get another big player to purchase the company.

The other option is for ABK to raise the price for purchase as well as the price for termination.  How far can ABK push MS and how thirsty is MS to get ABK.

While not without incentive, there would need to be a vote out of the deal with shareholders that, if the vote to allow the merger is any indication, would take up to 3 months to set. The simple announcement of such a meeting would cripple the stock value IMO, way more than the gain of $3b which shareholders would not enjoy directly anyway.

The deal is also extremely likely to include no Shop, no Solicitation clause preventing ABK to enter such a talk with other companies which means they will actually need to complete the vote before negotiating with another entity, but that's just me speculating.

The $95/share is already way above the value it's not clear that any other entity would want to go above that.

I think but correct me if I'm wrong, it is ABK that went to Microsoft to be bought, and it's quite possible they've asked other entities in the meantime. So I am not sure why another entity would even be interested that was not before.

IMO, That's why MS and ABK, while negotiating for an extension, are not really in a rush to do so and have not prepared this too much in advance.

Yes, if ABK had to publish a meeting to leave the deal then yes the stock would take a hit.  If ABK then publish a deal where Apple is purchasing them, their stock would jump just as much if not more.  Stocks value go up and down so that is not a big worry especially since it can be a temporary thing.

All the no shop and no Solicitation is gone because the deal has reach its termination point.  ABK does not have to directly communicate to any suiter they are willing to sell, they already did so with MS.  The suiters will come to them and right now in the gaming space its going to be a war on content.  All interested players are looking for content and any new player like Apple or Google need a company at the size of ABK to spring into the market.

I do not remember who approach who first.  At the time Bobby was going though some stuff and I thought that it was Phil that threw out a life line and Bobby said how much you willing to invest.  With everyone really interested in seeing ABK land somewhere, it really does not have to be with MS.

The fact we have not heard about an extension to the deal well before this termination date of today suggest to me that ABK is seriously considering other options and when money like 70Billion is getting thrown around, anything could happen.