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Machiavellian on 18 July 2023
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Imaginedvl said:
Machiavellian said:

You know there is a strong chance that ABK could just walk away with cash and sell to another big player who has enough capital like Apple or Google.  Those 2 companies would have absolutly no issue getting the deal done and ABK still gets paid like king.  I am saying if I was ABK, I walk away with my 3 billion dollar pay day and behind the scenes look to get another big player to purchase the company.

The other option is for ABK to raise the price for purchase as well as the price for termination.  How far can ABK push MS and how thirsty is MS to get ABK.

There is no chance of that. Because... Of the shareholders. They voted (more than 98%) for the deal and the board would get sued for doing that and it will be a suicide. 

Even if they have another offer (let's say from Apple; and this is IF they would have an offer); they would get sued to hell, the reason is that shareholders are expecting to cash up very soon and this would lead to even more delay, another investigation, uncertainties, etc... They simply cannot walk away with those 3B (gives nothing to the shareholders, bring back the stock around 60$ probably) even if they would want to negotiate with another player for a better price at this point.

The deal is happening, Activision is not walking away from it; I can tell you that. The ramifications of doing something like that would be so bad for them.

This does not make sense to me.  If there is a breakup fee at a certain point in time and that time expire why would they get sued for taking advantage of their option.  There is nothing and I mean nothing holding ABK from terminating this deal besides that they feel that its going to go through and MS offer the best deal they can get at this time.  If ABK feel they could get a better deal, I am sure they would vote 98% on that deal because at the end of the day its all about the money.  ABK is no more beholden to continue to go along with this deal unless the ability for success is much better than any other option that could come along.

None of what you say makes sense because the whole point of having a termination fee and both parties can walk away after that date passes is exactly the reason you state.  Anything before that date, yes, ABK could get sued, anything after that date, ABK can do whatever they like.  MS would not be pushing for a new deal unless they wanted to make sure to avoid that situation where ABK could just quit anytime between now and when MS or even ABK feel the CMA would finalize their decision.

Now do I believe the deal is happening yes, but that does not mean some BS could crop up and the scenario I put out there could not happen.  As far as shareholders are concerned is not who purchase ABK, its how high of a value they can get for their money.