Why Do People View the MS Acquisition of ABK as a "Good Thing?"

[LurkerJ]

EpicRandy said:

LurkerJ said:

Interesting hearing today.

It seems the CMA yet to receive the finalised proposals by MS, and while the CMA sees a way forward being the most likely scenario, they won't commit to it publicly. The deal will go through for sure, but it was an interesting back and forth.

The judge granted conditional adjournment providing that the CMA writes up the evidence that there has been a material change of circumstances to the deal that allowed them to reconsider their decision. MS lawyers will provide the CMA with the details of the 10-year CoD deal with SONY as part of that evidence that there has been a material change of circumstances, the CMA will pass the details of the deal on to the judge along with other the changes that prove they have met conditions set out by the judge for his conditional adjournment to be granted.

The judge was "troubled" by the CMA announcement timing in relation to the FTC losses, the lawyers from both parties denied that what happened in the USA had anything to do with this change of course in the UK process. I don't know if I believe that to be honest, literally within minutes we got tweets from both sides following the FTC drama

It seems MS preferred to settle with the CMA rather than to go ahead with the CAT appeal process because it is a) shorter b) a more certain path forward, the word "certainty" was uttered a million times. I believe "certainty" is important to reassure ABK and get them to stick to the deal beyond the deadline (18th of July).

I wasn't sure where where else to post this but there you go. I wondered previously what does the CMA get out of the "pause" they asked for along with MS, and listening to today's hearing, it really looks like they wanted to use MS desire for a) a shorter process b) a certain path forward to their advantage, which I think is going to be a very small one, but an advantage nonetheless? Will find out soon. 

Interesting indeed

The judge was clearly astounded by the development, He even told the CMA the sole fact this development occurred put the CMA decision into quash territory.

And this is not without logic, if they can get an adequate concession from MS now that means they could have gotten as much during phase 2 and they do have a duty to make sure a block is a last resort. This means somewhere in phase 2 the CMA failed to give MS due process. Could be not arguing in good faith, not giving the proper signal upon proposed remedies so that MS can propose a stronger one or any others.

This is also evidenced by the fact there's simply no way MS values the cloud gaming scene in the UK more than this transaction (not even worldwide IMO), so simply put, if push came to shove, MS would have proposed anything up to dropping their cloud venture in the UK and it's in fact exactly what's they are proposing now. The fact that they did not propose such before points to the CMA not giving a proper signal to MS during negotiation IMO.

So this stay in proceeding was both important for MS obviously to speed things up but also very important for the CMA. A quash can have severe consequences for the CMA and can impact its power, low oversight status, and overall procedure they using now.

Just to be clear, the quash route offered by the judge is because he believes the new developments (including the CoD SOONY deal) means he could justify the process starting all over, which means a new investigation by the CMA all together. The quash wasn't meant to nullify the CMA report or deem it as "illegitimate", only to restart it because it could be viewed as "historical" in the context of the new developments, but both parties almost begged the judge not to do that lol. 

The CMA could've accepted to start over but preferred not to because the process is costly, they're after all, an underfunded and an understaffed public sector. MS is after a) quickest path forward b) certainty, so the quash wasn't in their interest either, they made that clear. 

A quash wouldn't have severe consequences on the CMA like you're outlining here, I am not sure why you are jumping to that conclusion. The quash wouldn't have been granted because the CMA findings were inadequate, it would've been granted because they are new developments and a new transaction all together is on the table right now, interestingly, the new developments that could've led to a quash includes the SONY CoD deal. You're smart enough to know this, why do you always resort to speculation and hyperbole? You are clearly very involved in this which makes the context you're providing for the "quash" disingenuous. 

As for the consequences for the CMA, they've already happened. A right wing government that holds all the power right now has publicly come out and called them a woke working-from-home bunch who value diversity, the horror! Sunak has publicly admitted that he would steer the CMA, their independence has been clearly jeopardised in the stinkiest way possible, who knows what else has Hunt told the CMA when they met privately, I don't imagine it's "nicer" or "milder" that what has been said in public.

MS could've simply followed the process by appealing to the CAT and stopped there, but nope, they have used their connections with the government to pressure the CMA despite the fact that there is a legitimate path for appealing the CMA decision which remains an option, MS chose to play dirty, and it worked. Next time Amazon, Facebook or Apple has a problem with the CMA, they know what to do, and it's clearly not just going to CAT. 

Last edited by LurkerJ - on 18 July 2023