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Soundwave on 10 July 2023
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Wyrdness said:
NintendoPie said:

it's not a matter of them having a monopoly or not, it's a matter of business decisions based on revenue. the switch will continue to fall in sales, barring they cut the price or release another revision. though, even with a revision, this late in it's life, nothing will boost it for long enough to keep it afloat.

nintendo as a company is now relying on one revenue stream and can't stagger home and portable console releases to make up for decreases in their FY results bc of one console creeping up in age. if anything, they may attempt to keep switch as a "third pillar" like they did with the GBA.

You misunderstand Nintendo's situation not having two platforms increased their income as they only need to focus on one product that caters to two parallel markets this is another reason why they can wait they also make revenue off online subscriptions something they didn't have before and makes their income less reliant on sales at this point the won't be any third pillar. A monopoly matters because that provides a good market share before any product has launched it effectively turns the market into leverage in business decisions as even if the next platform isn't as successful as Switch the chances of it selling below 70m are slim because the portable market has no other viable place to go, you're right when looking at the short term but the monopoly itself offers options that give them more freedom to not be as pressed by short term matters in order to boost the long term.

There are other factors to consider though. 

They have to build a userbase for Switch 2/Super Switch/whatever sooner than later. 

No two ways around that. 

The next 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros., Animal Crossing, Splatoon, etc. etc. are likely all ear marked for the Switch successor. You want that system to rip its way to 20 million as fast as possible for multiple reasons. One you want to amass a large userbase as fast as possible to prevent any kind of question marks about being able to succeed the current Switch (which is I guarantee the no.1 thing Nintendo is currently preoccupied with internally, not late-stage Switch stuff, Switch is basically done at this point as far as what Nintendo needs to do for it). 

Secondly you want the userbase to be large so that those games have a large install base to sell to.

Scenario 1 (Switch 2 launch in October 2024) by end of 2025:

Switch 1: 144 million install base, Switch 2: 20 million install base

Scenario 2 (Switch 2 launch in September 2025) by end of 2025:

Switch 1: 150 million install base, Switch 2: 7 million install base

Scenario 1 is actually a lot better for Nintendo. The Switch still having positive brand momentum can help the Switch 2, strike while the iron is hot and get those people who would buy a Switch OLED to buy a Switch 2 instead. You'll have them locked in for the next 6+ years to buy Switch 2 software on top of being able to still sell them Switch 1 software. Sony basically did this too, they kinda just took the PS4 option off the table and forced people to essentially buy the PS5.