If Nintendo waits a long time for a Switch successor, what do you think will happen?

[zorg1000]

Soundwave said:

zorg1000 said:

I’m not sure I believe this theory that PS/XB gamers are willing to upgrade but Nintendo fans aren’t. For example, look at the popularity of the OLED model, you have millions of people willing to upgrade to a more expensive model for a better screen, imagine how many people would upgrade for better graphics/resolution/frame rate.

Switch launch-March 3, 2017

Switch shipments as of Sept 30, 2018-22.86 million (~19 months)

Switch OLED launch-October 8, 2021

Switch OLED shipments as of March 31, 2023-15.02 million (~18 months)

OLED is a more expensive model with a better screen and a couple minor QOL improvements, games don’t perform better on it and it doesn’t have any exclusive games or features yet it’s the most popular sku since it released and is doing pretty well launches aligned compared to the original model.

As long as Switch 2 is a pretty straight forward successor that isn’t way more expensive or focused on some new gimmick that people don’t want (3D screen or Wii U game pad) than I don’t see why cross-gen releases would prevent it from succeeding.

Thing is I think Nintendo felt the same thing about 3DS. 

"Wow, people are willing to pay $199.99 for the DSi XL, surely they'll easily pay $250 for the 3DS". They didn't just randomly pull $250 out of their ass, they thought it would be easy to sell at that price because people were buying DSi XL's for $199, surely $250 for a 3DS that was a full upgrade + 3D screen would be easy peasy. 

Now sure, maybe times have changed, but I would expect Nintendo to not be too cocky, memories of their senior staff are long and they'll remember full well what happened with the 3DS and Wii U. 

That’s not the same thing at all. I said as long as the successor isn’t way more expensive and doesn’t focus on a gimmick that people don’t want than cross-gen titles shouldn’t hurt sales.

DSi XL wasn’t $199.99 when 3DS launched, it was $169.99. 3DS at $249.99 was ~47% more expensive than the most expensive DS sku. People didn’t care enough about a 3D screen to pay the extra money.

On top of that, 3DS had a terrible launch/post-launch lineup.

March-Nintendogs & Pilotwings

June-Ocarina of Time 3D

September-Star Fox 64 3D

That’s the equivalent of

Switch 2-$499.99

Power Glove required

launch titles-Ring Fit Adventure 2 & Wave Race

post launch titles-Twilight Princess 4K & Star Fox Assault 4K

So yeah if that’s what Switch 2 looks like than I don’t see it doing too well.