Yeah exactly. Obviously they aren't announcing anything in 2023. I don't even know why some people bring that up as an option. Unless Switch was dying already (instead of breaking SW sales records and still competing for the best HW sales right now) then things would be different but there is no reason to cut Switch sales off at all, certainly not for the holiday season.
Now in terms of what might actually happen, yeah I would expect 6 months lead time at absolute most from announcement of the system to release. Either early year announcement and June-ish release (when kids are getting out of school), or Summer announcement and November release. Probably more like four months from announcement to launch because they really want to not cut off Switch sales and momentum too long before the next gen ships.
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