Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[crissindahouse]

Ryuu96 said:

crissindahouse said:

Bakhmut is pretty much lost now. Russia advanced in the city and there's not really much left while Ukraine advanced around the city. Would be nice to encircle it but I think if Ukraine would advance too much Russians would leave early enough. Would be nice to have the situation in which Ukraine was in Mariupol last year to take some thousand soldiers hostage but those Wagner/Russian soldiers in Bakhmut have too many options not to get in such a situation.

Lost in the sense that the city is basically rubble now, yeah.

If Ukraine does encircle the city though and forces Russia out of it, that would be a massive win, it would mean that Russia spent almost a year, wasted tens of thousands of lives, for a city which they never even managed to fully take, that'd be a serious morale blow.

And despite Wagner having like "90%" of the city or w/e, they still don't control it and still it's being heavily contested, they can't consolidate their gains on Bakhmut, it was all a waste in the end for Wagner, they would have achieved nothing.

Ukraine won't make Bakhmut their main target, likely somewhere in the North or South instead but they're probably happy to use Bakhmut to cause Russia to pull troops from elsewhere and foolishly still focus on this objective.

The problem I see is that Russia can also withdraw some troops from Bakhmut itself if they have taken it completely. They can strengthen their flanks more then. Right now they are still in the "let's waste hundreds of soldiers a day for a few buildings more" mode but they will lose less of them if they don't have buildings (or rubble) left to take.

Russia trying so hard to take this city was the best which could happen to Ukraine (well, Russia's equipment losses in Vuhledar were maybe even better lol). Just defending what's left will be easier I guess. Sure, if Ukraine can manage to encircle the city to get the city back even without capturing Russians it would be a big L for Russia but I guess encircling it when it's 100% in Russia's hands will cost more Ukrainians lives as if Ukraine would be still in the city. 

But I'm not a military strategist. I just think it will help Russia a little bit to occupy 100% of what's left of Bakhmut and not only 95% or whatever.