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Slownenberg on 11 May 2023
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PAOerfulone said:
Soundwave said:

Could be a bit less than 14 in all honesty, Furukawa saying 15 is a stretch is kind of funny actually. It isn't too often a company provides a sales target and then immediately cast doubt on their chances of hitting that, lol. 15 sounds like what they would get if everything goes right (probably won't), 14 more realistic, 13-13.5 probably not out of the question at all. 

This year was supposed to be 21 million and end up actually being 17.97. 

It will also depend on if they start to share any details on their successor at any point this FY. The majority of people who are buying the Switch at this point are consumers who already owned one the regular model, either launch or updated and so they traded it, sold it, or passed on to a friend or younger sibling and are looking to upgrade to the OLED since that is the model that is selling the most. But if Nintendo starts showing their hand a bit on their next-gen plans, a huge chunk of those people are going to withhold their OLED purchase and save up for a Switch 2 that'll most likely be just $50 more expensive, if not the same price, and most likely backwards compatible. 

Slownenberg said:

Hopefully they've got a 2D Mario for the holidays. We're of course still waiting for 2D Mario and a DK game on Switch, only gotten last gen ports so far. Those would be obvious choices and 2D Mario in particular would probably be a 20m seller.

But this late in the game I doubt any single piece of software would boost hardware that much. Only thing that would do that would be a price cut and it doesn't really seems like they're gonna do that. Sounds like Nintendo is just gonna let Switch fade without any actions to push sales further, and we'll probably be looking at a Switch 2 in maybe a bit over 12 months (maybe timed for when kids are getting out of school for summer break) or holiday 2024, though if they don't have any big games planned for next year I would assume a late Spring launch is more likely than waiting all the way until the holidays.

If they go a little bit over 14m this fiscal year that'll put it right at 140m to head into perhaps its final couple months before the successor comes out.

But yea besides the Switch coming near the end of its life cycle, this could still be a big year for Nintendo. They opened the Nintendo theme park in California earlier this year, you've got the Mario movie that'll probably make like $1.4 billion and probably end as the second largest animated movie in history, you've got Zelda coming out which is probably the most anticipated game the Switch has ever had and will almost certainly sell over 20m this year, and if they can close out the year with say a 2D Mario that would be a pretty great year for the company despite moving into the final 12 months of the Switch's life.

A new 2D Mario, a new DKC, and Prime 4 are pretty much the only major games left that have not appeared on Switch. I could see a new 2D Mario happening this year as the big holiday title to capitalize on the Mario movie hitting streaming, Blu-Ray/DVD, and cable & satellite. Maybe they even announce a new Donkey Kong game releasing next year to coincide w/ the announcement of a Donkey Kong movie by Illumination now in development and that could act as one of the last major swan songs for the Switch.

I think they are probably going to make Prime 4 a cross-gen release ala Twilight Princess and Breath of the Wild to serve as the bridge while the new 3D Mario serves as the big flagship launch title.

Agreed on 2D Mario, new DK (I'd prefer not a DKC game, rather start a fresh new DK series), and Prime 4 are the most obvious big games yet to hit that will hopefully be coming. There are plenty more I woulda loved to see come to Switch but since it seems very likely we're close to entering the final 12 months of Switch's life I don't really expect to see more than that. Personally I would have liked to see Fzero, Star Fox, Kid Icarus, a new 2D Zelda, Galaxy 2 port, Prime 2 and 3 remasters (maybe those are still coming??), WW/TP HD, another Ring Fit, Mario & Luigi, a Wario platformer...that's all I can think of off the top of my head.

And yeah I think it is looking more likely that Prime 4 has been delayed so much and nothing has been shown on it because they moved it to being a launch title for Switch 2 and very likely cross gen. I could see 3D Mario and Prime 4 launching with Switch 2, and then a month or so later MK9 coming out similar to MK8D on Switch. Though I certainly hope considering it is a realistic art style that if it is cross gen they are building each version's graphics from the ground up so that Switch 2 Prime 4 wouldn't get dragged down by being made for the much less powerful Switch.

curl-6 said:

- Luigi's Mansion 3 has now outsold Super Mario Galaxy.

- Including the Wii U version, Mario Kart 8 has sold more units than the NES.

- There are now more Switches in the wild than there are people in Japan.

Those are all crazy. Luigi Mansion outselling Galaxy is nuts. Makes you realize just how much of the Wii audience were non-gamers that Galaxy only sold what like 12 million.