Predictions - When Will the Wii Reach 50 Million Sold WW?

[NJ5]

Sqrl said:

Neos said:
April 2009 week ending 17th.

Just finished running some quick numbers from the spreadsheet and it came up with this as well. I'll stick with my initial gut still but its interesting how close these predictions have been to each other thus far.

Two interesting things emerge from my analysis, first a strictly YoY approach yields a mid-April date that varies a bit depending on how you choose to handle the first few months of 2009. But remembering the strong historical evidence behind the "40% trend" for the holidays and comparing it to the strictly YoY analysis we find the methods disagree about the final holiday numbers by more than a million units with the YoY trend producing the lower result.

I'm inclined to go with the higher 40% trend for two reasons; First, it is a very strong trend that has proven reliable time and again, and second we know production ramp ups are still under way and its very likely that the strictly YoY analysis based on the first half of the year will produce underestimated results.

All in all if my assessment is accurate then the change would shift the date forward by aproximately a month yielding March 20th instead of April 17th.

I calculated 27th March 2009 by assuming three things:

- Wii sales will be around 45 million by the end of 2008.

- production will still be at 2.4 million/month.

- in January-March 2009 sales will be at ~75% of production like in January-March 2008.

I think they're pretty reasonable assumptions. It's of course very hard to estimate the precise week when it happens, but I think I'll be pretty close.