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Soundwave on 08 April 2023
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VAMatt said:
Soundwave said:

https://deadline.com/2023/04/box-office-super-mario-bros-movie-air-amazon-ben-affleck-1235318951/

Headed for a $368 million global opening (with no Japan on top of that, doesn't release there until next week), will break Frozen 2's opening weekend record for an animated movie and is still in play for the biggest 5 day opening in domestic Hollywood history (for any movie). It's pacing for a 195 million domestic (US market) opening, but it could catch the record which is Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009) which hit 200 million. 

This is basically going to be a turning point for Nintendo one would have to think. These numbers are through the roof. And for people who think it's "just a kids movie", the demographic breakdowns say otherwise -- the lucrative 18-34 year old market is making up 62% of the Mario audience. That's an awful lot like the demo breakdown for say a ... Marvel blockbuster.  Every studio exec in Hollywood is looking at these numbers and drooling. 

A Nintendo cinematic universe is totally going to happen, this is going to be a massive franchise for Universal, and if Universal is smart, they will pay whatever it takes to get rights to Zelda and Smash Bros. movies down the line. Every studio in Hollywood has been hunting for the next big cinematic universe, looks like Nintendo has it. 

You're taking a pretty big jump to say that good ticket sales for a couple of days equal the start of a new, major cinematic universe.  

The main problem I see with that is that most of the Nintendo properties that are widely known don't have the near endless volume of backstory that the comic book properties have.  In fact, a major complaint about the Mario movie is that it's nothing but fan service, with little coherent story.

People running out to see the Mario Brothers movie does not mean they're going to come running back for the next one. The movies have to be good. I'm not saying that it isn't possible to make good movies based around Nintendo characters. I'm just saying that what we have in this movie is not evidence that there is a reasonable path forward for a Nintendo cinematic universe, the likes of which you seem to be thinking. 

The Cinema Score for this movie is an "A" which is excellent, PostTrack audience data is showing 94% positive audience reaction, 82% would recommend the film, which is a good deal higher than Sonic 2 which was also well received. 

This thing is *monster* at the box office too ... I don't think people understand how rare this is, for a first time franchise entry, this result is through the roof. 

"NCU" is totally going to happen, in fact every studio head in Hollywood on Tuesday will probably be calling Nintendo trying to get in on this gravy train, if Universal is smart they'll lock it down. But no question at this point, the film rights to the Legend of Zelda, is going to be the hottest film property up for grabs in Hollywood starting next week. 

A Mario sequel and probably a Donkey Kong spin-off movie are auto greenlights after this result, the question is going to be the broader film roadmap past those two. 

There's room for the stories to improve sure, but that didn't stop things like Transformers as a film franchise from having some monster hits, I think Nintendo has more potential than that. Really honestly too, there's like 10 Fast and Furious movies and maybe 2 of them (the first one and the fifth one) have a half decent story. I think yes they can do better on the story side, but Sonic 2 improved from Sonic 1 on that end too, I think Mario can too. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 08 April 2023