Yes it's a given it'd be down and like I said I expect the YoY decline to get smaller as the year goes on. The "positive surprise" I was quoting was that it was the 3rd best selling year when it isn't.
I'm not sure about your comment about the baseline. There was only one week that sold under 50k for Switch so far and the baseline seemed to be establishing itself around 53k which isn't that far from this week. I don't necessarily see any change to a baseline yet just a small temporary boost from the release of Kirby. If the sales next week do not decline from 59k then maybe an improved baseline can be argued otherwise I'd say the 53k-ish mark hasn't changed and sales will return to that.
But a baseline in the low 50's would be fine. Last year from Week 15 onwards the Switch settled into an average of around 67k until Splatoon 3 came. So a 53k baseline for example would be a respectable 21% drop YoY to this number, and a 21% drop YoY is about how I expect the year to end with 3.7m-4m sales.
I didn't say this was the new baseline, it's just that in Feb it seemed to be on its way downwards, and where it's at now is above where I would have expected a month ago.
Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)