| Ashadelo said: Yeah the Switch will be down but it will prolly still beat the PS5 for the year |
Of course it will, no probably about it. Which isn't a bad thing for PS5 nor necessarily a good thing for Switch. PS5 can have a great year and Switch a terrible year relatively and still Switch can come out on top. They have different standards for sales in Japan. The last time an active Nintendo Handheld (or hybrid that has the sales benefits of being able to be used as a handheld in Japan if you're being picky) lost to a PlayStation Console for a year was 2002 when the PS2 beat the GBA for that year.
For the PS5 to come out on top would require an amazing year for PlayStation with their best performance in over two decades or a complete disaster for Nintendo. Not going to happen.
| curl-6 said: I mean, it's kind of a given that the Switch is down YOY and tracking behind most prior years. This is year 7 on the market, it's old as fuck. |
Yes it's a given it'd be down and like I said I expect the YoY decline to get smaller as the year goes on. The "positive surprise" I was quoting was that it was the 3rd best selling year when it isn't.
I'm not sure about your comment about the baseline. There was only one week that sold under 50k for Switch so far and the baseline seemed to be establishing itself around 53k which isn't that far from this week. I don't necessarily see any change to a baseline yet just a small temporary boost from the release of Kirby. If the sales next week do not decline from 59k then maybe an improved baseline can be argued otherwise I'd say the 53k-ish mark hasn't changed and sales will return to that.
But a baseline in the low 50's would be fine. Last year from Week 15 onwards the Switch settled into an average of around 67k until Splatoon 3 came. So a 53k baseline for example would be a respectable 21% drop YoY to this number, and a 21% drop YoY is about how I expect the year to end with 3.7m-4m sales.
