Update: Leaker says the new Switch model he teased is next-gen, not a revision, Q1 2024 release

[VideoGameAccountant]

Soundwave said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

First, to Rol and other's points, we shouldn't trust the "insiders". Almost everyone and their mother said a Switch Pro was happening and in the end, it didn't. Digital Foundry as claimed that plans change, but is that true or is it just saving face. Even now, Andy Robinson claimed that the rest of 2023 was light for Switch, but then back peddled and claimed "Oh they are later in the year."

New Switch is probably coming. There is enough signals out there to say it's happening, just not when. I'm confident we wont see a new Switch until Early 2024. That would put the Switch at 7 years old on the dot. Latest would be March 2025, but it will probably be in 2024. 

As for the idea that "They don't need to sell Switch 2 because of strong sales", I think you could argue that's a great time to release. Nintendo is clearly worried about the transition, so if the Switch is still doing well, they could potential gear "Switch 2" as "Switch Plus" and support the old system. Nintendo did this with the GBA ("third pillar") and the 3DS (it got Nintendo made games through 2018). I expect early titles for the system will be playable on both and then come the first holiday, they'll have exclusive titles. Something like the 3D Mario or the next Smash will be exclusive to Switch 2.

Declining compared to what? That measure is only Year over Year, but the decline in sales is likely due to the loss of the COVID boost. You'd have to compare sales to 2019/2018 to really get a good gauge on how they are doing. So I don't think declining sales by itself isn't a reason to have a new system. Also, it doesn't speak to the profitability of the system. Components for this thing are cheap and they have a lot of software on it. Nintendo is probably making more money on Switches, especially as they've never had to lower the price (if fact they could probably consider raising it based on what Sony and Microsoft are doing). In totality, maybe, but on it's own declining revenue is hardly a factor.

Also, no, there is no world in which they get sued for unnecessary delays.

COVID measures were largely scrapped by this point a year ago (unless you live in China, but China is not an especially large market for Nintendo), can't use the COVID boost thing as a cover forever. Movie theaters were open, airlines were flying again, bars open again, sports stadiums had let people back in, etc. etc. by this time last year. 

If the system is still showing YoY declines north of 20% at this point it likely is an issue of age related product saturation. I would expect a boost in April with TOTK and the Mario movie but in the bigger picture if that's the general trend, it is what it is. 

It's not like net profit is a secret either you can see decline in their profit margins year over year too, they have to disclose that to share holders. Revenue is only piece of the puzzle. 

They wouldn't get sued for a delay (unless they are a egregiously unprofessional), but they could be very easily on the hook to have to pay for chip development/royalty fees. Contracts are designed to protect the chip maker too, otherwise a vendor like Nintendo could have a company like Nvidia spend hundreds of millions or billions making a chip and then just keep saying "well, actually we don't need it now, wait till next year", I'm sure chip makers/vendors protect themselves (ie: probably Nvidia gets guaranteed yearly royalty cut from a chip they deliver to Nintendo that has to be paid whether Nintendo releases the system, makes money on the system, etc. etc. etc. that's Nintendo's problem, not Nvidias). 

There likely are penalties for booking fab lines (which have to be booked way in advance these days given component crunches) too and then just not showing up with a product. If I'm in charge of running a fab and you booked up production lines and then show up with nothing, you've fucked me over because it's not like I can turn around and find a vendor for that production at the drop of a hat. At best if you did this and you went crawling back to TSMC or whoever when you finally decide to make your product, if I'm TSMC I'm saying "well you know what you go to the very end of the line and there's no guarantee we give you this price or this production amount anymore" and frankly like what can you even say to argue that. 

Sitting on a completed chip that cost a lot of money to make is simply a bad idea for a number of reasons. There's very little chance you can sit there and just have other companies shoulder all the cost of a delay and not take a hit yourself when you are the one that ordered the chip, pretty sure an Nvidia and TSMC for example are smart enough to protect their own interests and not just get stuck paying the tab for 1-2 extra years or having a negative impact on their business because a company decided to get cute at the tail end of a product cycle. 

Nvidia especially is notoriously anal about getting their cut and getting paid, I know MS and Sony tried in the past (OG XBox and PS3) to get them to compromise on certain aspects of their contract and they were met with a pretty swift "fuck off, our deal is the deal" from Nvidia which is in large part why Sony and MS only use AMD these days. TSMC probably not smart to fuck with them either, production lines are in short supply if Nintendo has some quantity booked (probably through Nvidia) probably not a smart decision to throw that away. 

On the COVID thing, remember we are comparing year end 2022 to 2021. A lot of places were removing restrictions, but others weren't. And there is the fact some people didn't want to go out. However, my point is still the same. 2018/2019 would be more typical years because they don't have some shadow of COVID hanging overhead. 

On profits, that's fine. I haven't looks recently at their most recent financial releases so I'll take your word on it. My point was on revenue specifically

I agree with you on the rest. I doubt there would be much headache if Nintendo purchased the chips and held back on releasing the system, instead opting to build up supply (we can see how it screwed Sony this generation). Unless there is something else in these agreements I'm not familiar with, I wouldn't think that would be a problem.