If you look at consoles lifecycle, the years after their peak ones, often show levels close to the previous year for 2-3 months of the start of each year (jan, feb, march) and often settle their baseline for the year after those first two/three months of sales. This will be the case with the Switch this year too (both in japan and globally). It may won't go below 40k, but I guarantee you it won't stay above 60k weekly baseline for the rest of the year.
I don't doubt it will settle lower than it is currently, based on past years and it's age, I just don't think it's likely to settle in the 30-40k range just yet, as it still has some momentum behind it.
Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)