Update: Leaker says the new Switch model he teased is next-gen, not a revision, Q1 2024 release

[zorg1000]

Soundwave said:

javi741 said:

2025 is still certainly possible. People keep comparing the Switch to previous Nintendo consoles when it comes to their lifespan and release. However, the problem with that is that the Switch is a major anomaly compared to the previous Nintendo consoles. The Switch is the most profitable console of all time with software that's selling far better than any previous Nintendo console, so the lifecycle pattern that we've seen with previous Nintendo systems may not apply to the Switch.

While yes sales are dropping for the Switch, the profits are still extremely good for Nintendo and when we compare this fiscal year's profits for Nintendo to the DS's 6th year, FY ending 2023 would have an operating profit of 3.55B compared to 1.5B for the FY ending 2011. Profits for the switch's 6th year are 137% higher than the DS's 6th year. Also, Nintendo this fiscal year would see a 24% drop YOY in operating profit compared to the DS which saw a 52% drop YOY. So Nintendo has much less of a reason to panic and release a successor early this time around like the DS.

Releasing a new console should never be done in a state of panic to begin with, if you let your business collapse or decline that sharply that you desperately need a new console, your management has fucked up royally to begin with. 

Like Sony was also making large profits with the PS4 right up until it's final year, but they still went ahead with PS5 because they know every generation has to end at some point. 

This whole obsession with "milk a console dry to the bone to the point where you're in a really dire state of decline" is not really something that should be applauded. It's a stupid strategy. Your existing console should be in a state of gentle, natural decline when its replaced (like PS4 was for example, like Super NES was), not in a "holy shit, this thing is totally cratering" type of thing. 

Especially when it's your only console and you don't have a secondary hardware line any longer to bounce back off of. 

Once your console is past 5 1/2 years old and starting to show YoY declines in the 20-30% YoY range it's probably a not very subtle sign that it's time to start moving ahead with the generational transition, that's not a situation that's going to magically get better for you the longer you wait, it's more probable to only get worse.

Yeah looking at calendar year shipments it looks like a successor next year makes a lot of sense.

2017-14.86m

2018-17.41m (+17%)

2019-20.21m (+16%)

2020-27.39m (+35%)

2021-23.67m (-14%)

2022-19.01m (-20%)

2023-~14-15m (~-25%)

Based on the current trajectory, even without a successor, Switch will probably sell somewhere around what it sold in its launch year and next year will be its worst sales year by a comfortable margin. Like you said, there is no reason to wait until the console is on its death bed before replacing it.