Update: Leaker says the new Switch model he teased is next-gen, not a revision, Q1 2024 release

[VideoGameAccountant]

First, to Rol and other's points, we shouldn't trust the "insiders". Almost everyone and their mother said a Switch Pro was happening and in the end, it didn't. Digital Foundry as claimed that plans change, but is that true or is it just saving face. Even now, Andy Robinson claimed that the rest of 2023 was light for Switch, but then back peddled and claimed "Oh they are later in the year."

New Switch is probably coming. There is enough signals out there to say it's happening, just not when. I'm confident we wont see a new Switch until Early 2024. That would put the Switch at 7 years old on the dot. Latest would be March 2025, but it will probably be in 2024. 

As for the idea that "They don't need to sell Switch 2 because of strong sales", I think you could argue that's a great time to release. Nintendo is clearly worried about the transition, so if the Switch is still doing well, they could potential gear "Switch 2" as "Switch Plus" and support the old system. Nintendo did this with the GBA ("third pillar") and the 3DS (it got Nintendo made games through 2018). I expect early titles for the system will be playable on both and then come the first holiday, they'll have exclusive titles. Something like the 3D Mario or the next Smash will be exclusive to Switch 2.

Jumpin said:

Soundwave said:

I'd also maintain I think there are factors at play beyond just "whether or not a new hardware is needed!".

If Nintendo ordered new hardware to be developed they likely did so 3-4 years ago, and if that hardware is now ready, someone has to be paid (someone being most notably Nvidia).

You can't just hire someone to paint your house and when they finish say "well it turns out I could've waited a year or two for my house to be painted, so can I pay you two years from now?". It doesn't work that way in chip design either. So I think the successor hardware chip was always going to be ready for 2023/2024.

Would you do a large job for anyone and then accept not being paid once the job is finished? Why do people expect Nvidia to behave that way? 

Nintendo can eat a bunch of losses by paying for it and not getting any revenue back I guess but I doubt they want to do that.

There's not much logic in sitting on a finished chip that you have to pay for, not making any money off of it, and then on top of that having a declining existing hardware that's bringing in lower and lower hardware sales and profit on a yearly basis to go with that. 

There’s also the factor of third party partners. These days games can take years to develop. It’d be bad business for them to delay just because “we don’t need new hardware right now.” A really bad justification for fucking their business partners.

Also, ”we don’t need new hardware right now” isn’t even a good argument since sustainable revenue and profit maximization are going to be what their corporate is interested in. Right now, Nintendo’s revenues are dropping fairly rapidly because of a decline in sales - 7% the previous year, over 15% this year. Unlike past generations, they don’t have multiple platforms to keep the ship afloat. It’s irresponsible for a company to tank their revenue

And, while I don’t know all the details of Japanese corporate law, Nintendo could be sued by business partners and share holders for unnecessary delays.

Declining compared to what? That measure is only Year over Year, but the decline in sales is likely due to the loss of the COVID boost. You'd have to compare sales to 2019/2018 to really get a good gauge on how they are doing. So I don't think declining sales by itself isn't a reason to have a new system. Also, it doesn't speak to the profitability of the system. Components for this thing are cheap and they have a lot of software on it. Nintendo is probably making more money on Switches, especially as they've never had to lower the price (if fact they could probably consider raising it based on what Sony and Microsoft are doing). In totality, maybe, but on it's own declining revenue is hardly a factor.

Also, no, there is no world in which they get sued for unnecessary delays.