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Slownenberg on 08 March 2023
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shikamaru317 said:
Soundwave said:

I'd also maintain I think there are factors at play beyond just "whether or not a new hardware is needed!".

If Nintendo ordered new hardware to be developed they likely did so 3-4 years ago, and if that hardware is now ready, someone has to be paid (someone being most notably Nvidia).

You can't just hire someone to paint your house and when they finish say "well it turns out I could've waited a year or two for my house to be painted, so can I pay you two years from now?". It doesn't work that way in chip design either. So I think the successor hardware chip was always going to be ready for 2023/2024.

Would you do a large job for anyone and then accept not being paid once the job is finished? Why do people expect Nvidia to behave that way? 

Nintendo can eat a bunch of losses by paying for it and not getting any revenue back I guess but I doubt they want to do that.

There's not much logic in sitting on a finished chip that you have to pay for, not making any money off of it, and then on top of that having a declining existing hardware that's bringing in lower and lower hardware sales and profit on a yearly basis to go with that. 

Yep, and the chipset that the new Switch seems to be using, the Orin based Tegra T239, was first rumored in 2021 and back in September 2022, the Nvidia employee confirmed it was a real chipset he was working on. I think it's safe to say this chipset will be done soon, and I agree that it doesn't make much sense to sit on a finished chipset design for a year or more just to push Switch 2 to 2025, especially since Switch 1 sales are clearly on the decline now. 

You're saying a chipset the next gen Switch is rumored to use isn't even out yet??? Let's remember that Switch released in 2017 and used a 2015 chip. If Nintendo is indeed using a chipset that isn't even available yet that almost certainly means a holiday 2024 or sometime in 2025 release date. Of course we have no idea with chipset they are going to use, but they want to keep the cost of the system down so whatever it is very unlikely to be bleeding edge so if they use chipset that comes out this year the next gen ain't starting anytime soon.

Also remember the launch timing relies upon games being finished and more games being closed to finished. Now presuming launch games would be MK9 and 3D Mario they have had plenty of time to make those so I wouldn't be surprised if they are close to being ready with those, but they need plenty more first party and third party games well into the works before a launch makes sense.

Also they have plenty of sales levers to pull with Switch since they are 6 years in and haven't pulled any yet other than new models. They could do hardware price cuts, software price cuts, and who knows maybe even a late lifecycle new model like I'm pretty sure the New 2DS came out super late in 3DS's lifecycle like didn't it even come out after the Switch?

Sales are indeed definitely slowing down now and 2023 will be the first year since 2018 that doesn't have amazing sales for Switch. But software is the lifeblood of the gaming industry and Nintendo sells TONS of software so HW slowing down doesn't mean we're suddenly gonna see a next gen Switch when they can keep making tons of money from Switch software for a good long while.

There's also that rumor, or well not even a rumor just a guy saying for some reason he thinks Nintendo might have a hard time making next gen backwards compatible with the Switch because I guess he thinks its gonna be a different architecture. If that is even remotely true Nintendo releasing later to either get a stronger chipset to make Switch emulation more easily done (in terms of performance) and having time to make a good emulator for it would make sense since they can just sell tons of software in the meantime and make bank off decent HW and great SW sales.