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EpicRandy on 02 March 2023
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Machiavellian said:
chakkra said:

Really? Are we seriously suggesting that now? What's next? Are you gonna tell me that the reason MS can't even mention Ghostwire Tokyo in a sentence is because Bethesda just thought that it would sell better on Playstation?

But hey, I'm not blaming Sony, I know that (like you keep repeating) it is all business. I mean, if it hadn't been for that Square Enyx partnership, PS gamers whould have had to wait a bit between GOW and.. Spiderman 2? So yeah, I can totally see how paying for exclusivity can fill the gaps.

And it is not about what I would prefer, it is about what would be the more realistic scenario; and if this deal is blocked I think they will have only 5 options left:

1) Make small adquisitions
2) Invest on their own studios
3) Hire more studios as 2nd parties
4) Invest more heavily into putting 3rd party releases into GP day one
5) Invest more heavily into 3rd party exclusives

Now, I don't think you need to be a genius to realize that $70b would be enough to do all five of those things; and I also think that you don't need to be a genius to realize that investing in their own studios would be the slowest option of them all. I mean, Sony just bought Bungie and Housemarquee for a reason (and Insomniac not too long ago).

So yeah, I would like for this to get blocked just so MS gets forced to focus on these other options instead.

I think you have a misconception on how big corporations like MS work.  Acquisition money is not money that just goes back to the Xbox division.  Acquisition money goes back to actually doing more acquisition.  The Gaming division for MS has a budget, that does not change whether this deal lands or fails.  MS as a company isn't going to expand the gaming division budget by the amount they were willing to use that 70b to purchase ABK.  I see gamers make this statement alot but from someone who has worked for multiple huge corporations that is not how the money works.

If the gaming division is not already doing your bullet points, no matter how this deal land or fail, nothing will change that because the gaming division has its budget for the year, milestones they need to reach, sales projections you name it.  That 70b goes back into MS acquisition pool of money to purchase another company.  It may be gaming related but with a huge business like MS, it could be anything.

I will also say that MS will not invest in any 3rd party exclusives.  That ship sailed with the Tomb Raider deal.  Instead MS will invest in day one 3rd party deals on GP as they feel that give better value.  You only have to look at the last 5 years of better to see that Phil has abandon that strategy.

So your ideal that if this deal gets block MS changes the course of what they are already doing and be more focus but that really is not going to be the case.  If the deal gets block MS will continue as they already have.  If they are not doing what is on your list they probably will continue to not do it and if they are its not like they are going to throw 70b at it because that money was never the gaming division money or budget.

Well exactly but there's still is caveat to this. the $69B deal is proving 2 main things (at least it's reasonable to assume both)

1. MS has a lot of faith in the Xbox division at the moment almost entirely due to GamePass 

2. They want to bolster GamePass library swiftly.

As of now this faith and goal as expressed itself mostly through acquisition and huge one at that. if this route is somehow blocked it's not unreasonable to think this faith will express differently unless MS ambition for Gamepass and Xbox are suddenly tempered.

And yes this transaction is made by MS but was suggested by Xbox I think, so it may not be unreasonable to assume Xbox is well listened within MS and that suggestion would be acted upon (Yes Xbox would have to fight to secure every next investment for sure but the fight may not be that hard given the context).

I too find unlikely that MS will make hat deals again however 2nd party deals with 3rd party entity is quite common with MS and I believe they may expand on this front (though they may also expand on this even if the deal succeed).