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EpicRandy on 02 March 2023
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Machiavellian said:
EpicRandy said:

Would not say they have no say but yes I should have said MS not investors, Investors may have no direct say over MS way to spend but MS does over Xbox and I do not believe that if this deal fails the money return directly in Xbox pocket but in MS's one, which Xbox will then need to fight to secure back.
What I described in my previous post is only under the hypothesis that Xbox does secure it.

This deal isn't about Xbox but MS as a business.  Meaning that acquisition on this scale is a company wide decision that does not pull that money from the Xbox division but a totally different pool.  So no, if this deal does not go through it does not mean that money just sits there for Phil to grab.  It goes back to MS pool of cash they set aside for acquisitions, it could be something in gaming or something totally non gaming related.

So we are literally saying the same thing here. I just explored the possibility Xbox successfully plead for the investment to be made otherwise and my hypothetical scenario a few post back was the same investment over 10years so probably easier for Xbox to secure this way.

Machiavellian said:
EpicRandy said:

Every action MS take will end up impacting Sony but yeah if you look only short term they won't be significant.

Not really.  Nothing MS has done so far even purchasing Bethesda, putting Starfield and Redfall exclusive or Even making GP a great gaming service has really slowed Sony down one bit.  What I am talking about is significant impact that will make all of Sony execs flinch.  Even this deal landing doesn't really effect Sony in the short term and MS going on a buying spree isn't going to penetrate Sony market lead unless Sony does something really stupid.  Currently I do not see that happening.

I'm not speaking about slowing Sony down per user base metric that's not even the goal, but every time MS does a deal with 3rd party or acquisition that's less revenue for Sony as collateral damage. Sony would have made millions on Starfield and Redfall and now they're not. If MS make a 2nd party deal with any studio that title would be exclusive to Xbox were otherwise the studio would likely have worked on a different multiplat titles which would have brought Sony revenue. That's what I mean by reduces output/revenue from 3rd party.  Even if the brand is as strong in the end popularity wise they are still impacted in their bottom line/margin profit. Now in a normal scenario it would be business as usual, but a scenario where Xbox get an extra $69B/10 years, Sony bottom line is sure to be impacted in many ways.

Machiavellian said:

I agree that MS moves under Phil has been very well calculated and real improvement to the brand, but Sony mindshare is extremely strong and they have used their market dominance very successfully in keep MS at bay

True but even then Sony reacted to many of Xbox move, doubt Sony would have made all those recent acquisition without MS 2018 ones and the Bethesda one.  At the end of the day Xbox will increase it's competitivness, Xbox quadrupled it's number of studios from 2018 to now but the investment is only now starting to produce result so no doubt in my mind that when the actual output match the production capacity Xbox MAU will significantly increase. 

Machiavellian said:

I agree on this point, I just believe that GP is a long term plan for success not in the short.  When I say long term, I am see probably 2 more generations before it really bear fruit.

Latest news we saw on the matter GP already is profitable even if the market still small so fruit bearing part is only a matter of opinion and the goal MS exec have for GP. IMO, short term goal for GP is to maintain and increase lead over competition and really be seen as the Netflix of gaming, that's why they need to act swiftly and decisively. 

Last edited by EpicRandy - on 02 March 2023