It really just depends on when the hardware is ready, when launch games are ready, and when Switch sales slowdown, as well as when they finish up the last round of Switch games to get them on the market.
I'm guessing the hardware could be ready at any point as they are probably gonna be using chipsets from 2022 and I would certainly think they have the design done now and have late stage prototypes and everything.
They could be very far along in development of MK9 and a new 3D Mario which presumably would be the launch games.
Switch sales are slowing but still should be pretty solid this year, though next year they could drop to levels Nintendo doesn't like.
And presumably they have a few more AAA and AA games coming out on Switch that haven't been announced yet and I would think that would take them through at least another 12 months.
If they don't plan on doing much of anything to lengthen the Switch's lifecycle (price cuts, new models) then I could see a late Spring 2024 successor launch. That way they don't announce it until after the holidays, so as to not hurt Switch sales over the holidays, while still giving consumers a few months to get ready. So perhaps 12 months after Zelda we get the next-gen system.
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