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The one point I would say is in favor of this leaker's posts is Nintendo seems for no reason to be very secretive about games post-July this year for what I can tell is no real good reason.

Like last year this time they had already revealed the big fall title (Pokemon Violet & Scarlett was unveiled in Februray for a November launch, we had also already seen footage of Bayonetta 3 and Splatoon 3 and Xenoblade 3, all 2nd half 2022 titles).

So why the big secrecy over anything post-July 2022 this year? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense it feels like.

It could be that they have a new Mario for fall 2023 but they don't want to reveal it before the movie and just like the current evergreen Mario platformers sell through the fall, but that's about all I can come up with.