Maybe, I wouldn't complain, but I have some doubts.
For one, why would you have a new hardware model or successor model and then not launch with your biggest game release of the year (Zelda: TotK)? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense especially when it's like Zelda is May and this hardware would be presumably only a few months later in November or so? You could have surely just
held the game back a few months.
Second, we're almost into March and there doesn't really seem to be much chatter from other dev/manufacturing sources about a new model this year other than this one Pokemon guy.
Third, Furukawa told investors he doesn't think new hardware would boost sales much this year (from the Q&A):
"But in the Nintendo Switch’s seventh year, it might be hard to increase unit sales with hardware-related initiatives alone. That is my candid impression."
That doesn't really sound like new hardware this year. Of course Nintendo can do whatever, but I do have some doubts. We'll see I guess if there's increased chatter/leaks in the next few months.
My best guess is still 2024.
Well, as for your first thought, they could be doing that because they want a double dip on Zelda TOTK, they may want people to buy it for $70 on Switch and then turn around and pay another $70 for the Switch 2 port with enhanced graphics. But I agree on the rest of your points. While this leaker may be right about his studio working on a Scarlet/Violet graphics update for Switch 2, I think he is mistaken about it releasing alongside DLC 2 in Winter 2023 (December). Maybe Nintendo has told his studio that, but they are planning internally to release Switch 2 in March 2024 and will delay that graphics update until then, instead of releasing it alongside DLC 2 like the leaker thinks.