| DaAndy said: There is barely any chance for Switch to NOT outsell NDS in Japan in the long run. It would need a negative "miracle" for that. Latest during holiday season 2024 Switch will take the lead lifetime, but it also could be during Q3/2024 already. (refering to calender year, not fiscal year.) |
If Switch follows a similar end-of-life path as the DS did but just 1 year later it might still fall short.... Lets say Switch successor is announced in March, due for release March 2024.
DS sales in 2010 (when 3DS was announced in March) dropped about 25% from 4m in 2009 to 2.9m in 2010. Then after 2010 it only sold another 700k.
Switch I was expecting around 3.5m this year just on natural old age decline (little early to make an accurate estimate for the year but based on January sales so far that seems reasonable).
so 28m + 3.5m + 700k = 32.2m which is still short of both the GB and DS
The announcement of a successor won't make sales bomb but could also make the slow-down for this year more than current expectations, so maybe only 3m.
Personally I still think Switch will take the top spot, but it's not guaranteed IMO. It's all dependant on the timing of the successor as I don't think there will be any significant price cut at this stage (at least not a price cut intended for life extension, they may cut the price to sell off end of life stock)
