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Farsala on 21 February 2023
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Kyuu said:
Farsala said:

I think Rol told me over 1-2m of Switch is Grey Market in China, IIRC. XS yeah, tiny market.

In May 2022, Sony confirmed Official Chinese sales were 670k. I imagine official sales are at least 1m by now. If you think half of LTD of Japan is Chinese sales, that would put China at around 2.4m with 1.4m being grey market (already rivaling Switch) , leaving Japan with 1.4m. That means China is beating Japan by far with a 1m lead already. It seems dubious because, Japan was Ps4's 2nd best market last gen.

Of note Switch launched in China after 57 months. That means the extremely popular Switch was soley on the grey market for 57 months and only sold around 1-2m according to Rol. (IIRC)

Ps5 launched in China after ~7 months.

So to me this seems like either the Switch sold much more in China than Rol says, possibly in the magnitude of 5m+. Or the Ps5 sold much less on the grey market than you think.

Yeah this estimate makes no sense (but then, all explanations also don't make much sense lol) Sony mentioned that China was PS5's 5th or 6th biggest market vs Japan being the 3rd in terms of "active install base" or something along these lines. We also know from MediaCreate that PS5 software isn't doing all that well in South Korea and Taiwan (though I recall Taiwan having a much higher tie ratio compared to South Korea). A lot of consoles are being exported to Asian countries but I don't think they're close to half, let alone way over that.

Actually I found the tweet from Daniel Ahmad. This tweet suggests that Nintendo Switch is the one that is majorly grey market at 75% grey market rate. But that makes sense due to the popularity and launch timing.