Here is where I stand:
1) for Phil, this is an act of desperation. He's spent with little to show for it. He's the opposite of Jim where he is great at PR, bit shit at execution. He has sold Gamepass as a success for MS who have given him money and so far it is no where near where it should be.
2) Sony is already preparing for a world post COD, but needs to buy time. Ideally they don't want that to ever be the case, but they have to. I think they've realised the only way to breast MS is to spend wiser and better. Instead of spending 60-70 billion, they are making a game with Deviation games. If they can build this up to compete with COD or surpass it over the next 10 years, MS will look like idiots.
3) if the purchase goes ahead and there is a meeting in the middle, Sony will ask not only for equal content, but for it to release day one free on PS+ as well. They will argue the competition giving it away for free whilst we pick up the cost isn't fair.
MS will argue they are picking up the cost and risk to create the game and market it, and if Sony puts up the money to have it day one on PS+ they will give it. The number will be stupidly high as it will be based on historical full price purchase of the game.
Sony will say no, if you're only picking up the cost of marketing and creating, we will share that cost with you so that way it's equal. If you're willing to lose out on your own profits from day one full price sales, you cannot then create a different that's opposite and costly for someone else.
If Sony gets their way, it will create a similar trend across PC and Switch.
4) whatever Deviation games create will look and perform better than COD as Sony will throw their talent behind it. Developers who leave / are sacked from Activision will join Deviation and Deviation will will join the PS family.
5) Sony will have it's own COD at a fraction of the cost of what MS paid.
Phil is on a slippery slope. I can't think of any other VP that's made his name with shaving PR and failed so badly at such a big cost. 2023 will make our break Phil. His investments at some point will have to show fruits of MS's labour.