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aTokenYeti said:

Some of the folks over at the installbase forums seem convinced the Xbox Series X|S can be at no more than 17-18 million lifetime at the end of 2022, but I am not sure where they would be getting those numbers. Granted, those posters were posting in a thread about PS5 sales

They likely believe that Ampere is reliable, the analyst firm that only had Xbox Series at 13m in June 2022. Thing is, Ampere in the past has always undertracked Xbox, I remember they once had Xbox numbers about 2m lower than other trackers like Zhuge, Welfare, and VGC had it. Also worth noting that Xbox execs have commented on tweets that were sourcing VGC sales numbers for Xbox and implied that the VGC numbers were close to accurate. There is no reason to believe Ampere's obvious lowball predictions.