I've thought for a while that it would be 2024. Holiday is the usual time to launch, but I think Nintendo may have learned something from the launch of the Switch and by seeing the demand far outstrip supply for Xbox/Playstation when launched during the 2020 holidays. They've seen from 2017 that the dedicated fans will buy a console whenever it launches and that regular consumers will then pick one up during the holidays, giving you effectively two launch periods with some time to restock between them. Q1 is too early as that means either sabotaging the 2023 holiday season sales or giving only 2 months of notice before a system comes out. WiiU sales were dead so they didn't mind announcing in October of 2016, but it makes much more sense to hold the announcement until Jan-Feb of 2024 then release later that year. Six months would be a good amount of time to stock consoles and build hype so I'll predict an August/September release, Q3 of 2024. They get the early adopters at the launch window and sales continue to climb as they reach the holidays of 2024.