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Slownenberg said:

I think Switch will hit 4m again in 2023. Japan is Switch's strongest territory so even if sales drop say like 20% YoY globally to 16m, which would be 3.84m in Japan, I expect Japan will drop less so 4m feels right.

I expected the Switch to do 4m this year in 2022. It beat my prediction by 800k, and is rapidly reaching my lifetime prediction. Surprisingly there has been absolutely 0 rumblings about a successor. So I honestly would not be surprised if it does 4m in 2023 now.