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Kyuu on 25 December 2022
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Agente42 said:
Kyuu said:

PS5 software don't hold out well because:

1. A ton of units are actually sold to Chinese consumers.

2. Tiny install base.

3. Higher digital ratios.

4. Backwards compatibility (PS4 versions work on both consoles, PS5 versions only work on PS5).

5. Rising popularity of f2p and services.

6. 3rd party decline across the board.

7. Shortage.

It's not rocket science. It's actually impressive that CrisisCore week 1 sales beat PS4 and Switch with all of that in mind. Multiplats still sell decent figures on PS (relative to Switch) even without counting digital. Compared to the old days, 3rd party sales seem horrible, but they may not be as bad when accounting for digital sales including PC and Xbox.

1. True

2. True

3. The high digital ratio in Japanese market it´s not true. Good digital performance in Japanese market was 40-50%, Japan has a stronger retail performance. With this in mind, PS5 is the worst Sony software sales.

4.  the White book demonstrates fall of the physical game in Ps4 too. And used market too.

5. True but f2p is stronger in Switch too. ( Fortnite bundles always sell better on Nintendo platform in Japan)

6. Momotaro and Monster Hunter Rise, and other thirds overperformed on Switch. Third bet high stakes in Ps5 and have okish performance at a best. 

7. The shortage doesn´t translate into a good overall performance when a comparable same videogame if the same install base or lower.

It´s not impressive. Ps5 received and will receive the mainlines FF and ports.

The great PS5 week with 3 games on charts, two was heavily bundled and one is a launch week. 

Square Enix seems worried about this. I believe FF will be a good performance, it´s a big game, with a monstrous budget. In Japan, the range may be 400-750 LTD (physical only).  Forspoken I don´t believe will have a good performance. 

This year, the Nintendo platform will be 92-94% of physical software sales in Japan. 

3. Digital is much higher now vs years ago, and it's higher on PS than on Switch (Globally. In the UK for instance digital ratios are 55% PS5 vs 25% Switch), and PS5 would be higher than PS4 due to Digital Edition. The difference in Japan is probably not as pronounced as the rest of the world but it's there and it adds up.

4. PS4 is an old console with virtually "zero production", not necessarily a huge factor but again... it's there.

5. And? Are you confusing me to mean PS is bigger than Switch or something? Switch probably has over 3 times the active install base. They're not even in the same realm when you consider 1st party output, which is what sells Switches.

6. What "overperformed" is Monster Hunter World and Dragon Quest XI on PS4. Rise performed just okay (well under the expectations of those obsessing about the significance of install bases). 3rd party games in general don't sell well in Japan regardless of the platform. CrisisCore's performance on Switch is abysmal. The few anomalies like Momotaro don't change this.

7. The shortage is hurting sales. Some of my points are less significant than others, but combined together, they make a difference. People are exaggerating both the "death of Playstation" in Japan and the significance of Japan as a market for Japanese 3rd parties.

SquareEnix and Naoki Yoshida seem confident that there will be a ton of PS5's shipped to Japan starting next year. If FF16 fails to sell decent numbers in Japan, then that would primarily be due to to the decline of 3rd parties, the IP itself, and the switch to action-RPG, as opposed to anything relating to the console it's being released on. PS5 may eventually sell as much as a typical home console in Japan.