November 2022 NPD Thread (NPD Out Now)

[trunkswd]

Farsala said:

trunkswd said:

Average selling price makes a bit of a difference. We had come up with slightly lower figures. $510 for PS5 and $310 for Xbox Series and Switch. Series S was discounted to $250 and would likely be the vast majority of Xbox Series sales thinking like 75-80%, plus the Series X did see a discount to $400 on the MS Store on Instagram. At this point it is impossible to be 100% right without more data from NPD. It is about getting as close as possible until more data is available. 

Yeah everyone is probably very much wrong.

Still I like to make arguments for different scenarios. Piscatella for example said one year when all consoles surpassed 1m sales, this year he didn't state such a thing, so I don't think it happened.

Too bad there isn't much discourse about HW sales though. I also considered giving up and not talking about it all after the hacks.

Nice to see you are still here. Our estimates are just that estimates. We are open to hearing what people have to say and we do take into consideration as long as there is some math / data behind it. 

I dealt with a lot of hate because our US estimates didn't match the NPD data 100%. Mainly because we had the order wrong. But overall the numbers weren't wrong by a ton considering how little data we are able to get (plus looking at historical data) to do our estimates. Xbox Series was 13% off compared to where we have it now, which is more than I would like. But people were acting like we were off by a lot more than that. 

I could wait for the monthly reports (US, UK, Europe) to come in before doing the estimates for each given month. This is something I've thought about doing for a while now. It would mean the initial estimates we post would be more accurate. Though not 100% accurate as there isn't much data available for certain parts of the world like Asia and Africa. The downside is the estimates would be posted several weeks later than they are now.